Football · Georgia First League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: FC Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti

Team pages: FC Samtredia · Aragvi Dusheti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.42Total

FC Samtredia2.56

Aragvi Dusheti0.87

1X2

73% 17% 10%

FC Samtredia Draw Aragvi Dusheti

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Samtredia 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLWW

Aragvi Dusheti 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWDLLLWL

Head-to-head

FC Samtredia 4–1–1 Aragvi Dusheti (6 last)

Aragvi Dusheti2-4FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti2-1FC Samtredia
Aragvi Dusheti0-2FC Samtredia
FC Samtredia2-2Aragvi Dusheti
FC Samtredia5-3Aragvi Dusheti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Samtredia 1571 · Aragvi Dusheti 1452

	FC Samtredia	Draw	Aragvi Dusheti
Our model	73%	17%	10%
Market	73%	17%	10%

Estimated total (ours) 3.42 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Samtredia (rating 1571 vs 1452).
H2H favours FC Samtredia: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Samtredia	Aragvi Dusheti
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 0.7	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.6	1.9 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.25

X5.25

29.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.82

2 (+1.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.27 → 1.25▼	Bet365 1.25
X	4.75 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25
2	9.00 → 9.50▲	Bet365 9.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.6%

Time*	1	X	2
07:33 +37’	1.27	4.75	9.00
10:12 +4’	1.25▼	5.25▲	9.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Samtredia 4–1–1 Aragvi Dusheti

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
08/08/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	2-4 HT 1-2	FC Samtredia
06/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Samtredia	2-0 HT 2-0	Aragvi Dusheti
07/03/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	2-1 HT 0-1	FC Samtredia
21/07/24 Georgia Cup	Aragvi Dusheti	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Samtredia
14/02/24 Club Friendly List	FC Samtredia	2-2 HT 1-0	Aragvi Dusheti
18/01/20 Europe Friendlies	FC Samtredia	5-3 HT 2-2	Aragvi Dusheti

Standings · Georgia First League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	28	14	8	6	35	29	50
2	FC Telavi	28	12	10	6	33	26	46
3	SFC Shturmi	28	12	10	6	31	23	46
4	FC Samtredia	28	12	4	12	51	40	40
5	Merani Martvili	28	10	7	11	31	36	37
6	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	28	9	8	11	30	37	35
7	Aragvi Dusheti	28	10	5	13	31	41	35
8	FC Sioni Bolnisi	28	8	9	11	35	37	33
9	FC Gori	28	7	9	12	29	36	30
10	Kolkheti Poti	28	6	10	12	34	35	28

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Samtredia	Aragvi Dusheti
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-0 W	2-1 W
Merani Martvili	5-0 W	1-3 L
Kolkheti Poti	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Gareji	6-1 W	2-0 W
FC Telavi	3-0 W	1-4 L
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	3-0 W	0-1 L
SFC Shturmi	1-0 W	3-4 L
FC Gori	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: FC Samtredia (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Samtredia

LWWWWWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	3-0	3	2	W
20/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	5-0	5-0	–	–	W
16/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
12/09	FC Gareji Georgia First League	3-1	6-1	8	5	W
07/09	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	3-0	2	10	W
28/08	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
22/08	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	7	7	W
15/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
08/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-1	4-2	1	4	W
22/06	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	2-3	6	4	L

Aragvi Dusheti

LLWWDLLLWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-3	1-4	6	2	L
20/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
06/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
30/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
15/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
08/08	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
22/06	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Samtredia win (73%). Probabilities: FC Samtredia 73%, draw 17%, Aragvi Dusheti 10%.

How many goals are expected in FC Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model expects 3.42 goals (FC Samtredia 2.56 · Aragvi Dusheti 0.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Samtredia vs Aragvi Dusheti?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.