Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 02/08, 08:30

Prediction: St George Willawong FC vs Brisbane Strikers

Team pages: St George Willawong FC · Brisbane Strikers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

St George Willawong FC0.99

Brisbane Strikers2.32

1X2

14% 19% 67%

St George Willawong FC Draw Brisbane Strikers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

St George Willawong FC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLWWLW

Brisbane Strikers 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

St George Willawong FC 1–3 Brisbane Strikers (4 last)

Brisbane Strikers2-0St George Willawong FC
Brisbane Strikers1-0St George Willawong FC
St George Willawong FC3-2Brisbane Strikers
Brisbane Strikers4-0St George Willawong FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St George Willawong FC 1449 · Brisbane Strikers 1620

	St George Willawong FC	Draw	Brisbane Strikers
Our model	14%	20%	66%
Market	15%	18%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Brisbane Strikers (rating 1449 vs 1620).
H2H favours Brisbane Strikers: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St George Willawong FC	Brisbane Strikers
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.3	2.8 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.7	1.8 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	5.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

16.00

X5.00

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.93

2 (-1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	1.33 → 1.33	Pinn 1.40 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:16 +6’	6.00	5.00	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
09:26 +1’	5.31	4.81	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St George Willawong FC 1–0–3 Brisbane Strikers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Brisbane Strikers	2-0 HT 1-0	St George Willawong FC
18/08/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	Brisbane Strikers	1-0 HT 0-0	St George Willawong FC
19/05/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	St George Willawong FC	3-2 HT 1-1	Brisbane Strikers
04/02/24 Club Friendly List	Brisbane Strikers	4-0 HT 0-0	St George Willawong FC

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	19	15	3	1	46	15	48
2	Broadbeach United	19	14	4	1	48	18	46
3	Ipswich FC	19	9	4	6	32	29	31
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	19	8	6	5	38	26	30
5	Robina City	19	8	5	6	31	21	29
6	Caboolture FC	19	8	3	8	35	32	27
7	Redlands United	19	7	5	7	36	33	26
8	Logan Lightning	19	7	3	9	35	37	24
9	Holland Park Hawks	19	7	3	9	29	36	24
10	St George Willawong FC	19	4	1	14	11	41	13
11	North Star	19	3	3	13	18	40	12
12	Capalaba FC	19	3	2	14	20	51	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St George Willawong FC	Brisbane Strikers
Caboolture FC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Robina City	0-2 L	3-0 W
Capalaba FC	2-0 W	8-0 W
North Star	2-0 W	3-1 W
Holland Park Hawks	1-2 L	3-2 W
Broadbeach United	1-4 L	2-1 W
Redlands United	0-3 L	1-1 D
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	0-8 L	2-0 W
Logan Lightning	0-0 D	3-2 W
Ipswich FC	0-4 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 6 L	9 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Brisbane Strikers (8 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St George Willawong FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	8	W
11/07	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-2	5	4	L
04/07	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
27/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
13/06	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-4	1	3	L
07/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
03/06	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-3	0-8	7	1	L
27/05	Logan Lightning Australia Cup Qualifying	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/05	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-4	4	4	L

Brisbane Strikers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	7	W
12/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	2-0	2	5	W
04/07	Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	3-2	0	3	W
26/06	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
19/06	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-1	5	10	W
06/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	3-0	2	3	W
02/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	3-1	4	9	W
23/05	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	3-0	8-0	7	4	W
16/05	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	3-2	10	4	W
08/05	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St George Willawong FC vs Brisbane Strikers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Brisbane Strikers win (67%). Probabilities: St George Willawong FC 14%, draw 19%, Brisbane Strikers 67%.

How many goals are expected in St George Willawong FC vs Brisbane Strikers?

The model expects 3.31 goals (St George Willawong FC 0.99 · Brisbane Strikers 2.32), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in St George Willawong FC vs Brisbane Strikers?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.