Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 31/07, 12:30

Prediction: Broadbeach United vs Logan Lightning

Team pages: Broadbeach United · Logan Lightning

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Broadbeach United2.12

Logan Lightning0.93

1X2

64% 21% 15%

Broadbeach United Draw Logan Lightning

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Broadbeach United 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDDL

Logan Lightning 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWLWD

Head-to-head

Broadbeach United 3–2–1 Logan Lightning (6 last)

Logan Lightning0-4Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United0-0Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning1-1Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United3-0Logan Lightning
Logan Lightning6-0Broadbeach United
Broadbeach United2-1Logan Lightning

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Broadbeach United 1571 · Logan Lightning 1486

	Broadbeach United	Draw	Logan Lightning
Our model	64%	22%	15%
Market	64%	21%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Broadbeach United (rating 1571 vs 1486).
H2H favours Broadbeach United: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Broadbeach United	Logan Lightning
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	22/56/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.3	2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 07:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.40▲	Bet365 1.40
X	5.25 → 4.33▼	Pinn 4.98 ★
2	7.00 → 6.00▼	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 10%

Time*	1	X	2
03:05 +2’	1.28	5.25	7.00
13:06 +3’	1.40▲	4.75▼	5.25▼
15:03 +5’	1.40	4.75	5.50▲
02:59 +6’	1.28▼	5.00▲	7.50▲
03:59 +5’	1.40▲	4.33▼	6.00▼
06:04 +1’	1.28▼	5.00▲	7.50▲
06:58 +6’	1.40▲	4.33▼	6.00▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:08	1.42	4.84	5.36
04:03	1.39▼	4.98▲	5.62▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Broadbeach United 3–2–1 Logan Lightning

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia Queensland Premier League	Logan Lightning	0-4 HT 0-3	Broadbeach United
29/04/26 Australia Cup Qualifying	Broadbeach United	0-0 HT 0-0	Logan Lightning
24/08/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Logan Lightning	1-1 HT 0-0	Broadbeach United
23/05/25 Australia Queensland Premier League	Broadbeach United	3-0 HT 3-0	Logan Lightning
26/06/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	Logan Lightning	6-0 HT 3-0	Broadbeach United
02/03/24 Australia Queensland Premier League	Broadbeach United	2-1 HT 0-0	Logan Lightning

Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Brisbane Strikers	19	15	3	1	46	15	48
2	Broadbeach United	19	14	4	1	48	18	46
3	Ipswich FC	19	9	4	6	32	29	31
4	Sunshine Coast Wanderers	19	8	6	5	38	26	30
5	Robina City	19	8	5	6	31	21	29
6	Caboolture FC	19	8	3	8	35	32	27
7	Redlands United	19	7	5	7	36	33	26
8	Logan Lightning	19	7	3	9	35	37	24
9	Holland Park Hawks	19	7	3	9	29	36	24
10	St George Willawong FC	19	4	1	14	11	41	13
11	North Star	19	3	3	13	18	40	12
12	Capalaba FC	19	3	2	14	20	51	11

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Broadbeach United	Logan Lightning
Brisbane Strikers	1-2 L	2-3 L
Caboolture FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Robina City	0-0 D	0-1 L
Capalaba FC	3-1 W	1-0 W
North Star	3-1 W	3-1 W
St George Willawong FC	4-1 W	0-0 D
Holland Park Hawks	1-0 W	2-3 L
Redlands United	2-0 W	5-1 W
Ipswich FC	2-2 D	3-2 W
Sunshine Coast Wanderers	3-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	6 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Broadbeach United (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Broadbeach United

WDWWWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	7	L
11/07	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
04/07	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
20/06	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	3-0	3-1	3	3	W
13/06	St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	4-1	3	3	W
06/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/05	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	2-0	11	0	W
16/05	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	2-2	4	3	D
09/05	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	3-0	6	6	W

Logan Lightning

WDWLLLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	6	D
11/07	Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-1	3-2	4	1	W
04/07	Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	2-3	9	3	L
30/06	Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League	3-1	5-1	2	2	W
27/06	Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League	1-1	1-3	11	2	L
23/06	Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League	0-2	2-3	7	1	L
20/06	Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
05/06	Capalaba FC Australia Queensland Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	0	W
27/05	St George Willawong FC Australia Cup Qualifying	–	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	North Star Australia Queensland Premier League	1-0	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Broadbeach United vs Logan Lightning?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Broadbeach United win (64%). Probabilities: Broadbeach United 64%, draw 21%, Logan Lightning 15%.

How many goals are expected in Broadbeach United vs Logan Lightning?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Broadbeach United 2.12 · Logan Lightning 0.93), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Broadbeach United vs Logan Lightning?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.