Football · Australia Queensland Premier League · 31/07, 12:30
Prediction: North Star vs Capalaba FC
Team pages: North Star · Capalaba FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.69Total
North Star2.42
Capalaba FC1.27
1X2
North Star
Draw
Capalaba FC
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
North Star
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Capalaba FC
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
North Star
2–0
Capalaba FC
(2 last)
- Capalaba FC2-3North Star
- North Star2-1Capalaba FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · North Star 1443 · Capalaba FC 1409
| North Star | Draw | Capalaba FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 20% | 18% |
| Market | 62% | 20% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours North Star: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Star | Capalaba FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 0.9 / 3.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/10/60% | 10/20/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.7 | 1.1 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Star 2–0–0 Capalaba FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League | Capalaba FC | 2-3 HT 1-1 | North Star |
| 30/08/14 Australia Brisbane Premier League | North Star | 2-1 | Capalaba FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brisbane Strikers | 19 | 15 | 3 | 1 | 46 | 15 | 48 |
| 2 | Broadbeach United | 19 | 14 | 4 | 1 | 48 | 18 | 46 |
| 3 | Ipswich FC | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 32 | 29 | 31 |
| 4 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 38 | 26 | 30 |
| 5 | Robina City | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | Caboolture FC | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 35 | 32 | 27 |
| 7 | Redlands United | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 26 |
| 8 | Logan Lightning | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 35 | 37 | 24 |
| 9 | Holland Park Hawks | 19 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 36 | 24 |
| 10 | St George Willawong FC | 19 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 11 | 41 | 13 |
| 11 | North Star | 19 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 12 |
| 12 | Capalaba FC | 19 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 20 | 51 | 11 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Star | Capalaba FC |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich FC | 2-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Holland Park Hawks | 0-0 D | 3-0 W |
| Redlands United | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| St George Willawong FC | 0-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Broadbeach United | 1-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Sunshine Coast Wanderers | 0-1 L | 0-5 L |
| Brisbane Strikers | 1-3 L | 0-8 L |
| Logan Lightning | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Caboolture FC | 3-2 W | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 7 L | 1 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: North Star (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Star
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 2-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 10/07 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 20/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 02/06 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 9 | L |
| 26/05 | Gold Coast United Australia Cup Qualifying |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/05 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
Capalaba FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Holland Park Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Redlands United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 04/07 | St George Willawong FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 27/06 | Broadbeach United Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 23/06 | Robina City Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-4 | 1-5 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 20/06 | Sunshine Coast Wanderers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 0-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 05/06 | Logan Lightning Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 30/05 | Caboolture FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 23/05 | Brisbane Strikers Australia Queensland Premier League |
0-3 | 0-8 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | Ipswich FC Australia Queensland Premier League |
1-1 | 2-4 | 10 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Star vs Capalaba FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a North Star win (62%). Probabilities: North Star 62%, draw 20%, Capalaba FC 18%.
How many goals are expected in North Star vs Capalaba FC?
The model expects 3.69 goals (North Star 2.42 · Capalaba FC 1.27), with a 51% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in North Star vs Capalaba FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.