Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 12/09, 14:00

Prediction: Brodd vs Staal Jørpeland

Team pages: Brodd · Staal Jørpeland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Brodd2.84

Staal Jørpeland1.55

1X2

63% 18% 18%

Brodd Draw Staal Jørpeland

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Brodd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWWDLWWL

Staal Jørpeland 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WWLDLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Brodd 4–1–1 Staal Jørpeland (6 last)

Staal Jørpeland3-2Brodd
Staal Jørpeland1-2Brodd
Brodd3-2Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland2-3Brodd
Brodd3-3Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland2-5Brodd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brodd 1485 · Staal Jørpeland 1463

	Brodd	Draw	Staal Jørpeland
Our model	64%	18%	18%
Market	63%	19%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Brodd: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brodd	Staal Jørpeland
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.9	2.1 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	5.2 / 8.2	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.5	2.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.75

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.42▼	Bet365 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.75▲	Pinn 4.93 ★
2	3.50 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.12

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
17:31 +33’	1.61	4.50	3.50
06:09 +10’	1.42▼	4.75▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:17 +61’	1.37	4.93	5.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Brodd 4–1–1 Staal Jørpeland

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Staal Jørpeland	3-2 HT 0-2	Brodd
09/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Staal Jørpeland	1-2 HT 0-1	Brodd
29/03/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Brodd	3-2 HT 3-0	Staal Jørpeland
24/08/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Staal Jørpeland	2-3 HT 0-2	Brodd
06/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Brodd	3-3 HT 0-2	Staal Jørpeland
25/08/23 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Staal Jørpeland	2-5 HT 1-2	Brodd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	18	11	5	2	46	24	38
2	Vindbjart	18	11	2	5	46	20	35
3	Varhaug	18	9	5	4	35	23	32
4	Flekkerøy	18	10	2	6	39	30	32
5	Mandalskameratene	18	9	4	5	42	32	31
6	Viking 2	18	8	4	6	44	26	28
7	Brodd	18	8	2	8	36	35	26
8	Stabaek 2	18	7	2	9	38	44	23
9	Haugesund 2	18	6	3	9	36	51	21
10	Odd II	18	5	4	9	33	43	19
11	Vag FK	18	6	1	11	24	34	19
12	Staal Jørpeland	18	5	4	9	34	45	19
13	Hinna	18	5	4	9	33	51	19
14	Åkra	18	4	2	12	24	52	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brodd	Staal Jørpeland
Viking 2	3-1 W	2-5 L
Mandalskameratene	1-2 L	0-2 L
Stabaek 2	2-2 D	1-2 L
Åkra	4-1 W	3-4 L
Haugesund 2	4-0 W	3-4 L
Hinna	3-3 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Brodd (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brodd

LLDWWDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
30/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
15/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
03/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
26/07	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
28/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
19/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	3-3	16	4	D
13/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
31/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-3	1-4	9	1	L

Staal Jørpeland

WWLDLLWLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
17/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-4	2	2	L
08/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
01/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-4	–	–	L
25/07	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-4	3-8	5	4	L
25/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-5	5	2	L
15/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	3-1	5-2	3	4	W
30/05	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-0	4	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brodd vs Staal Jørpeland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Brodd win (63%). Probabilities: Brodd 63%, draw 18%, Staal Jørpeland 18%.

How many goals are expected in Brodd vs Staal Jørpeland?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Brodd 2.84 · Staal Jørpeland 1.55), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Brodd vs Staal Jørpeland?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.