Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Vag FK vs Brodd

Team pages: Vag FK · Brodd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Vag FK2.09

Brodd1.87

1X2

44% 21% 35%

Vag FK Draw Brodd

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Vag FK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLLWW

Brodd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWDLWWLL

Head-to-head

Vag FK 2–1 Brodd (3 last)

Brodd4-1Vag FK
Brodd2-4Vag FK
Vag FK3-0Brodd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vag FK 1473 · Brodd 1477

	Vag FK	Draw	Brodd
Our model	43%	22%	35%
Market	44%	21%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vag FK: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vag FK	Brodd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 4.7	4.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.5 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.05

X4.33

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.93

Under 3.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.05▲	Pinn 2.25 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.60 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
21:18 +54’	2.00	4.33	2.60
05:32 +3’	2.05▲	4.33	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:17 +139’	2.25	3.99	2.29

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vag FK 2–0–1 Brodd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Brodd	4-1 HT 3-1	Vag FK
20/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Brodd	2-4 HT 1-1	Vag FK
26/07/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Vag FK	3-0 HT 2-0	Brodd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	19	12	5	2	50	25	41
2	Vindbjart	19	11	2	6	47	23	35
3	Mandalskameratene	19	10	4	5	45	33	34
4	Varhaug	19	9	5	5	35	27	32
5	Flekkerøy	19	10	2	7	40	33	32
6	Viking 2	19	9	4	6	48	26	31
7	Brodd	19	8	2	9	37	38	26
8	Stabaek 2	19	8	2	9	41	45	26
9	Vag FK	19	7	1	11	27	34	22
10	Staal Jørpeland	19	6	4	9	37	46	22
11	Odd II	19	6	4	9	35	44	22
12	Haugesund 2	19	6	3	10	36	54	21
13	Hinna	19	5	4	10	34	55	19
14	Åkra	19	4	2	13	25	54	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vag FK	Brodd
Haugesund 2	3-0 W	4-0 W
Åkra	3-2 W	4-1 W
Hinna	0-3 L	3-3 D
Mandalskameratene	1-2 L	1-2 L
Stabaek 2	0-2 L	2-2 D
Viking 2	3-2 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brodd (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vag FK

WLWDLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
30/08	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
01/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
27/07	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-2	9	4	W

Brodd

LDWWDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
05/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
30/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
15/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
03/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
26/07	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
28/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
19/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	3-3	16	4	D
13/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vag FK vs Brodd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vag FK win (44%). Probabilities: Vag FK 44%, draw 21%, Brodd 35%.

How many goals are expected in Vag FK vs Brodd?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Vag FK 2.09 · Brodd 1.87), with a 50% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vag FK vs Brodd?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.