Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 01/11, 12:00

Prediction: Drøbak/Frogn vs Ørn Horten

Team pages: Drøbak/Frogn · Ørn Horten

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Drøbak/Frogn2.16

Ørn Horten1.63

1X2

50% 21% 29%

Drøbak/Frogn Draw Ørn Horten

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Drøbak/Frogn 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWWLW

Ørn Horten 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWLLW

Head-to-head

Drøbak/Frogn 1–2–3 Ørn Horten (6 last)

Ørn Horten1-1Drøbak/Frogn
Ørn Horten3-4Drøbak/Frogn
Drøbak/Frogn0-1Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten5-1Drøbak/Frogn
Drøbak/Frogn1-8Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten1-1Drøbak/Frogn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Drøbak/Frogn 1538 · Ørn Horten 1497

	Drøbak/Frogn	Draw	Ørn Horten
Our model	49%	22%	28%
Market	50%	21%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Drøbak/Frogn (rating 1538 vs 1497).
H2H favours Ørn Horten: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Drøbak/Frogn	Ørn Horten
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.8	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 1.3	2.4 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.3	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.33

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 01:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.92 ★
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	2.60 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +15’	2.05	4.20	2.60
00:45 +20’	1.80▼	4.33▲	3.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:04 +2’	1.89	3.82	3.04
02:04 +1’	1.92▲	3.69▼	3.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Drøbak/Frogn 1–2–3 Ørn Horten

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Ørn Horten	1-1 HT 1-1	Drøbak/Frogn
30/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Ørn Horten	3-4 HT 0-1	Drøbak/Frogn
26/07/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Drøbak/Frogn	0-1 HT 0-0	Ørn Horten
28/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Ørn Horten	5-1	Drøbak/Frogn
11/05/19 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Drøbak/Frogn	1-8	Ørn Horten
05/08/17 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Ørn Horten	1-1	Drøbak/Frogn

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	25	19	2	4	91	35	59
2	Elverum	25	17	2	6	71	40	53
3	Rade IL	26	14	4	8	86	42	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	25	14	2	9	44	24	44
5	Drøbak/Frogn	25	12	5	8	56	36	41
6	Oppsal	26	12	3	11	44	38	39
7	Ørn Horten	25	11	5	9	46	39	38
8	Rælingen	25	11	5	9	49	55	38
9	Sandefjord 2	25	11	3	11	57	55	36
10	Lyn 1896 II	25	10	4	11	53	55	34
11	Sarpsborg 2	25	9	5	11	60	57	32
12	Fram	25	8	5	12	46	55	29
13	Brumunddal	25	3	3	19	26	109	12
14	Bjørkelangen	25	1	0	24	17	106	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Drøbak/Frogn	Ørn Horten
Brumunddal	3-1 W	4-0 W
Oppsal	2-1 W	0-2 L
Sarpsborg 2	4-1 W	3-4 L
Bjørkelangen	6-0 W	5-2 W
Gjøvik-Lyn	3-2 W	1-0 W
Lyn 1896 II	4-1 W	1-3 L
Fram	3-4 L	4-2 W
Rade IL	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	5 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Drøbak/Frogn (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Drøbak/Frogn

LLWDWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
17/10	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-3	1	3	L
10/10	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
03/10	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
19/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
07/09	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
30/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/08	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-3	–	–	L

Ørn Horten

WWLDLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
19/10	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
10/10	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
03/10	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
19/09	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
12/09	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/09	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-4	8	4	L
30/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-2	5-2	–	–	W
15/08	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Drøbak/Frogn vs Ørn Horten?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Drøbak/Frogn win (50%). Probabilities: Drøbak/Frogn 50%, draw 21%, Ørn Horten 29%.

How many goals are expected in Drøbak/Frogn vs Ørn Horten?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Drøbak/Frogn 2.16 · Ørn Horten 1.63), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Drøbak/Frogn vs Ørn Horten?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.