Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 26/10, 18:00

Prediction: Sandefjord 2 vs Sarpsborg 2

Team pages: Sandefjord 2 · Sarpsborg 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.37Total

Sandefjord 22.32

Sarpsborg 22.05

1X2

44% 21% 35%

Sandefjord 2 Draw Sarpsborg 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Sandefjord 2 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDWWDLL

Sarpsborg 2 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWWDWLDW

Head-to-head

Sandefjord 2 1–0 Sarpsborg 2 (1 last)

Sarpsborg 22-3Sandefjord 2

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sandefjord 2 1501 · Sarpsborg 2 1537

	Sandefjord 2	Draw	Sarpsborg 2
Our model	44%	21%	35%
Market	45%	21%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sandefjord 2	Sarpsborg 2
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	3.5 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	1.8 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X4.33

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 14:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.00▼	Pinn 2.08 ★
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.34
2	2.25 → 2.55▲	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +3’	2.30	4.20	2.25
13:01 +3’	2.10▼	4.20	2.45▲
13:56 +6’	2.00▼	4.33▲	2.55▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +49’	2.16	4.01	2.42
09:54 +8’	2.12▼	4.03▲	2.47▲
10:39 +22’	2.11▼	4.07▲	2.46▼
12:43 +22’	1.99▼	4.17▲	2.62▲
14:56 +8’	2.09▲	4.25▲	2.44▼
16:00 +4’	2.08▼	4.34▲	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 4

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sandefjord 2 1–0–0 Sarpsborg 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Sarpsborg 2	2-3 HT 1-1	Sandefjord 2

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	25	19	2	4	91	35	59
2	Elverum	25	17	2	6	71	40	53
3	Rade IL	25	14	4	7	86	41	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	25	14	2	9	44	24	44
5	Drøbak/Frogn	25	12	5	8	56	36	41
6	Ørn Horten	25	11	5	9	46	39	38
7	Rælingen	25	11	5	9	49	55	38
8	Lyn 1896 II	24	10	4	10	53	52	34
9	Oppsal	24	10	3	11	40	38	33
10	Sandefjord 2	24	10	3	11	54	53	33
11	Sarpsborg 2	24	9	5	10	58	54	32
12	Fram	25	8	5	12	46	55	29
13	Brumunddal	25	3	3	19	26	109	12
14	Bjørkelangen	25	1	0	24	17	106	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sandefjord 2	Sarpsborg 2
Lillehammer	0-5 L	3-1 W
Rade IL	0-2 L	3-2 W
Fram	1-1 D	0-3 L
Brumunddal	2-1 W	11-0 W
Ørn Horten	1-1 D	4-3 W
Lyn 1896 II	3-4 L	2-2 D
Bjørkelangen	4-1 W	7-0 W
Drøbak/Frogn	0-1 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sarpsborg 2 (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sandefjord 2

LWLWDWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
12/10	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-2	7	8	L
03/10	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
26/09	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-2	4-3	3	3	W
21/09	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
05/09	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	6	2	W
31/08	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	3-4	2	4	L
15/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	4-1	–	–	W
10/08	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	4	2	L

Sarpsborg 2

WLWWWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	7-0	7	2	W
12/10	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
03/10	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-4	–	–	L
26/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-2	4	3	W
21/09	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	6	4	D
12/09	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-1	3-1	1	6	W
07/09	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	4-3	1	4	W
31/08	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-2	3-2	7	4	W
17/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-3	2	2	L
09/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-0	11-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sandefjord 2 vs Sarpsborg 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sandefjord 2 win (44%). Probabilities: Sandefjord 2 44%, draw 21%, Sarpsborg 2 35%.

How many goals are expected in Sandefjord 2 vs Sarpsborg 2?

The model expects 4.37 goals (Sandefjord 2 2.32 · Sarpsborg 2 2.05), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Sandefjord 2 vs Sarpsborg 2?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.