Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: Ørn Horten vs Rade IL

Team pages: Ørn Horten · Rade IL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Ørn Horten1.11

Rade IL2.38

1X2

16% 18% 66%

Ørn Horten Draw Rade IL

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ørn Horten 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLDLWWLL

Rade IL 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWDLDWW

Head-to-head

Ørn Horten 0–1–0 Rade IL (1 last)

Rade IL1-1Ørn Horten

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ørn Horten 1482 · Rade IL 1528

	Ørn Horten	Draw	Rade IL
Our model	15%	20%	65%
Market	17%	17%	66%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rade IL (rating 1482 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ørn Horten	Rade IL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.6	3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

15.50

X5.50

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.85

2 (-1.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 15:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
X	4.33 → 5.50▲	Bet365 5.50
2	1.85 → 1.40▼	Pinn 1.56 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:21 +78’	2.90	4.33	1.85
20:17 +2’	2.88▼	4.33	1.90▲
04:36 +7’	3.30▲	4.50▲	1.70▼
15:09 +1’	5.50▲	5.50▲	1.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:26 +9’	4.13	4.13	1.56
05:00 +53’	4.08▼	4.07▼	1.57▲
15:00 +10’	4.08	4.38▲	1.56▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ørn Horten 0–1–0 Rade IL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Rade IL	1-1 HT 0-1	Ørn Horten

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	24	19	2	3	89	32	59
2	Elverum	24	16	2	6	68	40	50
3	Rade IL	24	14	4	6	86	40	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	24	14	2	8	44	21	44
5	Drøbak/Frogn	24	11	5	8	53	35	38
6	Ørn Horten	24	10	5	9	45	39	35
7	Rælingen	24	10	5	9	44	55	35
8	Lyn 1896 II	24	10	4	10	53	52	34
9	Oppsal	24	10	3	11	40	38	33
10	Sandefjord 2	24	10	3	11	54	53	33
11	Sarpsborg 2	24	9	5	10	58	54	32
12	Fram	24	7	5	12	43	53	26
13	Brumunddal	24	3	3	18	25	106	12
14	Bjørkelangen	24	1	0	23	17	101	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ørn Horten	Rade IL
Lyn 1896 II	1-3 L	0-0 D
Lillehammer	0-1 L	1-5 L
Brumunddal	4-0 W	14-0 W
Fram	4-2 W	1-1 D
Sandefjord 2	1-1 D	2-0 W
Sarpsborg 2	3-4 L	2-3 L
Gjøvik-Lyn	1-0 W	2-0 W
Elverum	0-1 L	4-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Rade IL (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ørn Horten

LWWLDLWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
10/10	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	7	8	L
03/10	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
26/09	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	4-2	–	–	W
19/09	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
12/09	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/09	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-4	8	4	L
30/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-2	5-2	–	–	W
15/08	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
08/08	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	–	–	L

Rade IL

DWLWWDLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-0	14-0	–	–	W
12/10	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-0	4	8	W
05/10	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
26/09	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-5	–	–	L
19/09	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	4-2	3	2	W
05/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
31/08	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	2-3	6	4	L
15/08	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
09/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ørn Horten vs Rade IL?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Rade IL win (66%). Probabilities: Ørn Horten 16%, draw 18%, Rade IL 66%.

How many goals are expected in Ørn Horten vs Rade IL?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Ørn Horten 1.11 · Rade IL 2.38), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ørn Horten vs Rade IL?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.