Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: Hinna vs Madla

Team pages: Hinna · Madla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.03Total

Hinna1.55

Madla2.48

1X2

23% 20% 57%

Hinna Draw Madla

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Hinna 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWLWL

Madla 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWLDWWWDWW

Head-to-head

Hinna 1–1–3 Madla (5 last)

Madla3-0Hinna
Hinna2-1Madla
Hinna0-0Madla
Madla3-2Hinna
Madla2-0Hinna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hinna 1479 · Madla 1570

	Hinna	Draw	Madla
Our model	23%	20%	57%
Market	23%	20%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 4.03 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madla (rating 1479 vs 1570).
H2H favours Madla: 3-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hinna	Madla
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 2.6	2.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.6	2.6 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.90

X4.50

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.93

2 (-1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 4.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.90▲	Pinn 4.16 ★
X	4.33 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	1.70 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
18:14 +3’	3.30	4.33	1.70
06:27 +2’	3.90▲	4.50▲	1.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +196’	4.16	4.43	1.51

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hinna 1–1–3 Madla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Madla	3-0 HT 1-0	Hinna
12/03/26 Club Friendly List	Hinna	2-1 HT 2-1	Madla
05/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Hinna	0-0 HT 0-0	Madla
17/04/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Madla	3-2 HT 1-2	Hinna
30/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Madla	2-0	Hinna

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	18	11	5	2	46	24	38
2	Vindbjart	18	11	2	5	46	20	35
3	Varhaug	18	9	5	4	35	23	32
4	Flekkerøy	18	10	2	6	39	30	32
5	Mandalskameratene	18	9	4	5	42	32	31
6	Viking 2	18	8	4	6	44	26	28
7	Brodd	18	8	2	8	36	35	26
8	Stabaek 2	18	7	2	9	38	44	23
9	Haugesund 2	18	6	3	9	36	51	21
10	Odd II	18	5	4	9	33	43	19
11	Vag FK	18	6	1	11	24	34	19
12	Staal Jørpeland	18	5	4	9	34	45	19
13	Hinna	18	5	4	9	33	51	19
14	Åkra	18	4	2	12	24	52	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hinna	Madla
Vindbjart	0-2 L	4-3 W
Vag FK	3-0 W	3-2 W
Odd II	2-3 L	4-0 W
Flekkerøy	3-2 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Madla (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hinna

LLDDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
31/07	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	5-3	–	–	W
25/07	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-7	3	2	L
25/06	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
19/06	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-3	1	4	D
14/06	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-4	3	2	L
29/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-1	4	3	L

Madla

DWLDWWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
17/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	4-3	3	3	W
01/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
25/07	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-0	5-1	4	2	W
27/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
22/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
30/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hinna vs Madla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Madla win (57%). Probabilities: Hinna 23%, draw 20%, Madla 57%.

How many goals are expected in Hinna vs Madla?

The model expects 4.03 goals (Hinna 1.55 · Madla 2.48), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hinna vs Madla?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.