Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 27/07, 19:00

Prediction: Sarpsborg 2 vs Ørn Horten

Team pages: Sarpsborg 2 · Ørn Horten

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.85Total

Sarpsborg 21.94

Ørn Horten1.92

1X2

39% 23% 38%

Sarpsborg 2 Draw Ørn Horten

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sarpsborg 2 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLWLLDWL

Ørn Horten 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWDLLW

Head-to-head

Sarpsborg 2 3–2 Ørn Horten (5 last)

Ørn Horten5-1Sarpsborg 2
Sarpsborg 23-1Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten2-4Sarpsborg 2
Ørn Horten4-2Sarpsborg 2
Sarpsborg 23-1Ørn Horten

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarpsborg 2 1460 · Ørn Horten 1538

	Sarpsborg 2	Draw	Ørn Horten
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	39%	23%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.85 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ørn Horten (rating 1460 vs 1538).
H2H favours Sarpsborg 2: 3-0-2.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarpsborg 2	Ørn Horten
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.5	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4	2.9 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.00

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 18:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.30▼	Pinn 2.41 ★
X	4.10 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	1.91 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:19 +1’	2.88	4.10	1.91
01:01 +2’	2.88	4.10	1.90▼
03:01 +1’	2.88	4.10	1.91▲
04:00 +2’	2.88	4.10	1.90▼
18:00 +2’	2.30▼	4.00▼	2.35▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:01	2.80	3.62	2.04
18:01	2.41▼	3.81▲	2.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarpsborg 2 3–0–2 Ørn Horten

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Ørn Horten	5-1 HT 3-1	Sarpsborg 2
23/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Sarpsborg 2	3-1 HT 1-1	Ørn Horten
30/08/21 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Ørn Horten	2-4 HT 1-2	Sarpsborg 2
02/10/17 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Ørn Horten	4-2 HT 0-1	Sarpsborg 2
19/06/17 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Sarpsborg 2	3-1 HT 1-0	Ørn Horten

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	13	10	2	1	52	19	32
2	Gjøvik-Lyn	13	8	2	3	17	8	26
3	Rade IL	13	8	1	4	48	25	25
4	Elverum	13	8	1	4	34	22	25
5	Drøbak/Frogn	13	5	4	4	24	16	19
6	Sandefjord 2	13	6	1	6	36	30	19
7	Oppsal	12	6	1	5	21	16	19
8	Ørn Horten	12	5	4	3	23	19	19
9	Lyn 1896 II	12	6	1	5	24	25	19
10	Rælingen	13	5	2	6	27	37	17
11	Fram	13	3	3	7	17	27	12
12	Sarpsborg 2	12	3	2	7	19	31	11
13	Brumunddal	13	2	2	9	15	48	8
14	Bjørkelangen	13	1	0	12	9	43	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarpsborg 2	Ørn Horten
Bjørkelangen	0-2 L	4-2 W
Fram	2-1 W	1-1 D
Brumunddal	3-3 D	6-1 W
Oppsal	0-2 L	2-0 W
Rade IL	1-5 L	1-1 D
Lyn 1896 II	6-3 W	2-1 W
Gjøvik-Lyn	0-1 L	0-3 L
Rælingen	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ørn Horten (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sarpsborg 2

DLWLWLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	0-2	4	4	L
20/06	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
13/06	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-3	–	–	D
30/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
26/05	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-5	0	2	L
19/05	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	6-3	9	3	W
10/05	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-1	3	3	L
04/05	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
27/04	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	1-6	–	–	L
20/04	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-2	2	4	D

Ørn Horten

WDWDWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
20/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
13/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/05	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/05	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
16/05	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-2	6	4	W
10/05	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	10	7	D
02/05	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	6-1	12	0	W
25/04	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
21/04	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-1	8	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarpsborg 2 vs Ørn Horten?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sarpsborg 2 win (39%). Probabilities: Sarpsborg 2 39%, draw 23%, Ørn Horten 38%.

How many goals are expected in Sarpsborg 2 vs Ørn Horten?

The model expects 3.85 goals (Sarpsborg 2 1.94 · Ørn Horten 1.92), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 2 vs Ørn Horten?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.