Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 08/08, 15:00

Prediction: Madla vs Vindbjart

Team pages: Madla · Vindbjart

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

Madla2.19

Vindbjart1.86

1X2

46% 21% 33%

Madla Draw Vindbjart

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Madla 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWLDWW

Vindbjart 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWWLWW

Head-to-head

Madla 0–2–4 Vindbjart (6 last)

Vindbjart2-2Madla
Vindbjart5-2Madla
Madla1-3Vindbjart
Madla0-0Vindbjart
Vindbjart3-2Madla
Madla3-4Vindbjart

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madla 1537 · Vindbjart 1544

	Madla	Draw	Vindbjart
Our model	46%	22%	33%
Market	46%	21%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vindbjart: 4-2-0.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Madla	Vindbjart
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.5	2.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.1	2.6 / 7.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X4.33

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.85

Under 3.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:25 +6’	1.95	4.33	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madla 0–2–4 Vindbjart

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Vindbjart	2-2 HT 0-1	Madla
04/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Vindbjart	5-2 HT 2-0	Madla
07/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Madla	1-3 HT 1-2	Vindbjart
20/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Madla	0-0 HT 0-0	Vindbjart
13/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Vindbjart	3-2 HT 1-2	Madla
07/08/21 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Madla	3-4	Vindbjart

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flekkerøy	14	9	2	3	33	23	29
2	Madla	14	8	4	2	35	20	28
3	Vindbjart	14	8	2	4	31	16	26
4	Viking 2	14	7	3	4	37	17	24
5	Mandalskameratene	14	6	4	4	36	28	22
6	Varhaug	14	5	5	4	26	22	20
7	Brodd	14	6	2	6	31	29	20
8	Stabaek 2	14	5	2	7	33	38	17
9	Vag FK	14	5	1	8	20	25	16
10	Staal Jørpeland	14	4	4	6	28	36	16
11	Haugesund 2	14	4	3	7	28	35	15
12	Åkra	14	4	2	8	20	37	14
13	Odd II	14	3	4	7	22	35	13
14	Hinna	14	3	4	7	25	44	13

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madla	Vindbjart
Flekkerøy	5-1 W	0-2 L
Mandalskameratene	2-2 D	0-2 L
Haugesund 2	2-3 L	4-0 W
Åkra	3-1 W	2-0 W
Hinna	3-0 W	7-0 W
Odd II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Stabaek 2	1-2 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vindbjart (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madla

LWDWDWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
25/07	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-0	5-1	4	2	W
27/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
22/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
30/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
25/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	3-0	11	4	W
14/05	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
02/05	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	6	2	L

Vindbjart

WDLLDWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
25/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	7-0	6	2	W
28/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	2-3	10	1	L
21/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	11	1	W
30/05	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
16/05	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
09/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	3-3	3	1	D
02/05	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madla vs Vindbjart?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Madla win (46%). Probabilities: Madla 46%, draw 21%, Vindbjart 33%.

How many goals are expected in Madla vs Vindbjart?

The model expects 4.05 goals (Madla 2.19 · Vindbjart 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Madla vs Vindbjart?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.