Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Vag FK vs Mandalskameratene

Team pages: Vag FK · Mandalskameratene

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.07Total

Vag FK1.74

Mandalskameratene2.33

1X2

29% 20% 51%

Vag FK Draw Mandalskameratene

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Vag FK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDLL

Mandalskameratene 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Vag FK 0–1 Mandalskameratene (1 last)

Mandalskameratene2-1Vag FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vag FK 1480 · Mandalskameratene 1537

	Vag FK	Draw	Mandalskameratene
Our model	28%	21%	51%
Market	29%	20%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 4.07 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mandalskameratene (rating 1480 vs 1537).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vag FK	Mandalskameratene
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	2.6 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 6.2	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.10

X4.50

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)2.00

2 (-0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 2.10 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:24 +2’	3.10	4.50	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +2’	2.67	3.65	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vag FK 0–0–1 Mandalskameratene

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Mandalskameratene	2-1 HT 0-0	Vag FK

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	15	9	4	2	39	23	31
2	Flekkerøy	15	9	2	4	35	26	29
3	Vindbjart	15	8	2	5	34	20	26
4	Mandalskameratene	15	7	4	4	38	29	25
5	Viking 2	15	7	3	5	39	21	24
6	Varhaug	15	6	5	4	28	23	23
7	Brodd	15	6	2	7	32	31	20
8	Stabaek 2	15	6	2	7	35	38	20
9	Staal Jørpeland	15	5	4	6	30	37	19
10	Haugesund 2	15	5	3	7	32	37	18
11	Vag FK	15	5	1	9	20	27	16
12	Hinna	15	4	4	7	28	46	16
13	Åkra	15	4	2	9	21	39	14
14	Odd II	15	3	4	8	23	37	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vag FK	Mandalskameratene
Stabaek 2	0-2 L	4-8 L
Madla	2-3 L	2-2 D
Viking 2	3-2 W	0-4 L
Staal Jørpeland	0-1 L	8-3 W
Varhaug	1-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vag FK (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vag FK

LWLWWLWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
01/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
27/07	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-2	9	4	W
06/06	Trauma Norway Cup	2-1	5-1	9	3	W
30/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
25/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	7	2	L

Mandalskameratene

DWDLWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
25/07	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-2	8-3	5	4	W
27/06	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
21/06	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
31/05	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-4	4-8	2	2	L
23/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	3	4	W
10/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vag FK vs Mandalskameratene?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Mandalskameratene win (51%). Probabilities: Vag FK 29%, draw 20%, Mandalskameratene 51%.

How many goals are expected in Vag FK vs Mandalskameratene?

The model expects 4.07 goals (Vag FK 1.74 · Mandalskameratene 2.33), with a 50% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Vag FK vs Mandalskameratene?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.