Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 17/08, 18:00

Prediction: Varhaug vs Stabaek 2

Team pages: Varhaug · Stabaek 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

Varhaug2.34

Stabaek 21.81

1X2

50% 21% 30%

Varhaug Draw Stabaek 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Varhaug 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWDDLW

Stabaek 2 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWDDW

Head-to-head

Varhaug 1–0 Stabaek 2 (1 last)

Stabaek 21-4Varhaug

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varhaug 1508 · Stabaek 2 1504

	Varhaug	Draw	Stabaek 2
Our model	49%	21%	30%
Market	50%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varhaug	Stabaek 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.8	2.2 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.2 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/22/33%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.33

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
15:51 +8’	1.80	4.33	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varhaug 1–0–0 Stabaek 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Stabaek 2	1-4 HT 0-1	Varhaug

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	15	9	4	2	39	23	31
2	Vindbjart	16	9	2	5	40	20	29
3	Flekkerøy	16	9	2	5	35	27	29
4	Mandalskameratene	16	8	4	4	40	30	28
5	Viking 2	15	7	3	5	39	21	24
6	Varhaug	15	6	5	4	28	23	23
7	Brodd	16	7	2	7	33	31	23
8	Stabaek 2	15	6	2	7	35	38	20
9	Staal Jørpeland	15	5	4	6	30	37	19
10	Haugesund 2	15	5	3	7	32	37	18
11	Vag FK	16	5	1	10	21	29	16
12	Odd II	16	4	4	8	26	39	16
13	Hinna	16	4	4	8	30	49	16
14	Åkra	16	4	2	10	21	45	14

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varhaug	Stabaek 2
Viking 2	0-3 L	1-1 D
Vag FK	0-1 L	2-0 W
Staal Jørpeland	4-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Stabaek 2 (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Varhaug

WLWDLWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
31/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-5	–	–	L
27/07	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
21/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
12/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
05/06	Hinna Norway Cup	1-1	2-2	5	6	D
29/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
25/05	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
14/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	4-1	–	–	W

Stabaek 2

LLWWLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	2-2	2	6	D
25/07	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
28/06	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	3-2	4	1	W
21/06	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-4	5	6	L
15/06	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
31/05	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-2	8-4	8	2	W
26/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/05	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
11/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-4	0-6	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varhaug vs Stabaek 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varhaug win (50%). Probabilities: Varhaug 50%, draw 21%, Stabaek 2 30%.

How many goals are expected in Varhaug vs Stabaek 2?

The model expects 4.15 goals (Varhaug 2.34 · Stabaek 2 1.81), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Varhaug vs Stabaek 2?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.