Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 15/08, 15:00

Prediction: Vindbjart vs Åkra

Team pages: Vindbjart · Åkra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.31Total

Vindbjart3.06

Åkra1.25

1X2

73% 15% 12%

Vindbjart Draw Åkra

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

3-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vindbjart 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWWLWWL

Åkra 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Vindbjart 2–0 Åkra (2 last)

Åkra0-2Vindbjart
Vindbjart1-0Åkra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vindbjart 1515 · Åkra 1451

	Vindbjart	Draw	Åkra
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	73%	15%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 4.31 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vindbjart (rating 1515 vs 1451).
H2H favours Vindbjart: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vindbjart	Åkra
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.7	1.7 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 7	2.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X6.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.90

2 (+2)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.80

Under 42.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.33
2	7.00 → 7.50▲	Pinn 8.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +4’	1.25	6.00	7.00
06:33 +15’	1.22▼	6.00	7.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:45 +2’	1.17	6.33	8.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vindbjart 2–0–0 Åkra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Åkra	0-2 HT 0-0	Vindbjart
25/09/21 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Vindbjart	1-0 HT 1-0	Åkra

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	15	9	4	2	39	23	31
2	Flekkerøy	15	9	2	4	35	26	29
3	Vindbjart	15	8	2	5	34	20	26
4	Mandalskameratene	15	7	4	4	38	29	25
5	Viking 2	15	7	3	5	39	21	24
6	Varhaug	15	6	5	4	28	23	23
7	Brodd	15	6	2	7	32	31	20
8	Stabaek 2	15	6	2	7	35	38	20
9	Staal Jørpeland	15	5	4	6	30	37	19
10	Haugesund 2	15	5	3	7	32	37	18
11	Vag FK	15	5	1	9	20	27	16
12	Hinna	15	4	4	7	28	46	16
13	Åkra	15	4	2	9	21	39	14
14	Odd II	15	3	4	8	23	37	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vindbjart	Åkra
Madla	3-4 L	1-3 L
Odd II	2-1 W	2-1 W
Hinna	7-0 W	4-3 W
Haugesund 2	4-0 W	2-7 L
Flekkerøy	0-2 L	1-3 L
Staal Jørpeland	3-3 D	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vindbjart (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vindbjart

DLLDWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-4	4	3	L
03/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
25/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	7-0	6	2	W
28/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	2-3	10	1	L
21/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
13/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	11	1	W
30/05	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	6	4	D
23/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
16/05	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
09/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	3-3	3	1	D

Åkra

WDLWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
01/08	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	4-3	–	–	W
26/07	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-4	–	–	L
26/06	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-3	3	2	L
21/06	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
13/06	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
31/05	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
26/05	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-3	2-7	–	–	L
14/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
07/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	4-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vindbjart vs Åkra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vindbjart win (73%). Probabilities: Vindbjart 73%, draw 15%, Åkra 12%.

How many goals are expected in Vindbjart vs Åkra?

The model expects 4.31 goals (Vindbjart 3.06 · Åkra 1.25), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Vindbjart vs Åkra?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.