Football · USA NWSL Women · 18/07, 22:00
Prediction: Bay FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.76Total
Bay FC (W)1.33
North Carolina Courage (W)1.43
1X2
Bay FC (W)
Draw
North Carolina Courage (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Bay FC (W)
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
North Carolina Courage (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bay FC (W)
3–1–1
North Carolina Courage (W)
(5 last)
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours North Carolina Courage (W) (rating 1470 vs 1541).
- H2H favours Bay FC (W): 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay FC (W) | North Carolina Courage (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 1.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.3 | 2.3 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 2.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay FC (W) 3–1–1 North Carolina Courage (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 USA NWSL Women | North Carolina Courage (W) | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Bay FC (W) |
| 18/10/25 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 1-4 HT 1-2 | North Carolina Courage (W) |
| 20/04/25 USA NWSL Women | North Carolina Courage (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Bay FC (W) |
| 20/10/24 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | North Carolina Courage (W) |
| 14/09/24 USA NWSL Women | North Carolina Courage (W) | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Bay FC (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave (W) | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 21 | 13 | 28 |
| 2 | Portland Thorns (W) | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit (W) | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Utah Royals (W) | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Kansas City Current (W) | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 14 | 21 |
| 8 | Orlando Pride (W) | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 9 | Angel City FC (W) | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 18 | 14 | 16 |
| 10 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 17 | 16 | 15 |
| 11 | Bay FC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 15 |
| 12 | Reign FC (W) | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 14 |
| 13 | Houston Dash (W) | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 14 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 15 | Chicago Stars (W) | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 28 | 12 |
| 16 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bay FC (W) | North Carolina Courage (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Racing Louisville FC (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Boston Legacy FC (W) | 2-2 D | 2-2 D |
| Orlando Pride (W) | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Chicago Stars (W) | 0-1 L | 4-0 W |
| Portland Thorns (W) | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: North Carolina Courage (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bay FC (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 30/05 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 21/05 | Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 16/05 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 05/04 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
North Carolina Courage (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/06 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/04 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 2-2 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 26/04 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 29/03 | Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-3 | 1-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bay FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an North Carolina Courage (W) win (39%). Probabilities: Bay FC (W) 34%, draw 28%, North Carolina Courage (W) 39%.
How many goals are expected in Bay FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?
The model expects 2.76 goals (Bay FC (W) 1.33 · North Carolina Courage (W) 1.43), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Bay FC (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.