Football · USA NWSL Women · 25/07, 04:00

Prediction: Portland Thorns (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Portland Thorns (W)1.18

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)1.59

1X2

27% 27% 46%

Portland Thorns (W) Draw NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Thorns (W) 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLWLL

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Portland Thorns (W) 1–1–4 NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (6 last)

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)3-0Portland Thorns (W)
Portland Thorns (W)4-1NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)2-1Portland Thorns (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Thorns (W) 1478 · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1564

	Portland Thorns (W)	Draw	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (rating 1478 vs 1564).
H2H favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W): 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Thorns (W)	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.1	1.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.40

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.52 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.96

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +6’	3.25	3.40	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +1’	3.52	3.37	1.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Thorns (W) 1–1–4 NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/25 USA NWSL Women	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	3-0 HT 2-0	Portland Thorns (W)
23/04/25 USA NWSL Women	Portland Thorns (W)	4-1 HT 1-1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
10/11/24 USA NWSL Women	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	Portland Thorns (W)
24/08/24 USA NWSL Women	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Portland Thorns (W)
25/03/24 USA NWSL Women	Portland Thorns (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
06/11/23 USA NWSL Women	Portland Thorns (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Washington Spirit (W)	15	9	3	3	24	12	30
2	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	15	9	3	3	19	10	30
3	San Diego Wave (W)	16	9	2	5	23	17	29
4	Portland Thorns (W)	16	8	3	5	25	18	27
5	Utah Royals (W)	15	8	3	4	22	16	27
6	Kansas City Current (W)	15	8	1	6	23	22	25
7	Angel City FC (W)	14	7	1	6	22	14	22
8	North Carolina Courage (W)	14	6	3	5	20	19	21
9	Orlando Pride (W)	16	6	2	8	21	21	20
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	14	5	4	5	21	19	19
11	Bay FC (W)	14	5	3	6	16	19	18
12	Reign FC (W)	14	5	2	7	15	19	17
13	Houston Dash (W)	15	4	4	7	18	24	16
14	Boston Legacy FC (W)	16	4	4	8	17	23	16
15	Chicago Stars (W)	15	4	0	11	8	30	12
16	Racing Louisville FC (W)	14	2	2	10	16	27	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Thorns (W)	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Reign FC (W)	0-2 L	3-2 W
San Diego Wave (W)	3-4 L	0-2 L
Utah Royals (W)	2-2 D	3-1 W
Kansas City Current (W)	1-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Portland Thorns (W)

WLDWLDLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	2	2	L
12/07	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
06/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	3-0	4-0	3	4	W
29/06	San Diego Wave (W) Women’s Friendly	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
30/05	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
24/05	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	8	0	L
21/05	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	5	2	W
18/05	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	10	2	D
09/05	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	1	3	L
03/05	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	5	0	W

NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)

DWLLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	3-2	4	2	W
16/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
11/07	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	3-1	3	5	W
05/07	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	6	2	L
27/06	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	3	1	W
31/05	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	4	1	W
24/05	Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup	0-2	0-3	1	2	L
21/05	Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup	0-1	1-4	7	3	L
16/05	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/05	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-1	11	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Thorns (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) win (46%). Probabilities: Portland Thorns (W) 27%, draw 27%, NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 46%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Thorns (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Portland Thorns (W) 1.18 · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1.59), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Thorns (W) vs NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.