Football · USA NWSL Women · 18/07, 18:00
Prediction: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)1.51
Reign FC (W)0.73
1X2
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Draw
Reign FC (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Reign FC (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
3–3–0
Reign FC (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1554 · Reign FC (W) 1479
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | Draw | Reign FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 28% | 17% |
| Market | 58% | 22% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (rating 1554 vs 1479).
- H2H favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W): 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | Reign FC (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.6 | 2 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 2.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 3–3–0 Reign FC (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 USA NWSL Women | Reign FC (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
| 05/10/25 USA NWSL Women | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Reign FC (W) |
| 16/03/25 USA NWSL Women | Reign FC (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
| 17/09/24 USA NWSL Women | Reign FC (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
| 30/06/24 USA NWSL Women | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Reign FC (W) |
| 12/11/23 USA NWSL Women | Reign FC (W) | 1-2 HT 1-2 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave (W) | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Washington Spirit (W) | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 27 |
| 3 | Portland Thorns (W) | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 8 | 27 |
| 5 | Utah Royals (W) | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Kansas City Current (W) | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Orlando Pride (W) | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 20 |
| 9 | Angel City FC (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Reign FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 17 |
| 11 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 16 |
| 13 | Houston Dash (W) | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 14 | Bay FC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 15 |
| 15 | Chicago Stars (W) | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 28 | 12 |
| 16 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 7 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | Reign FC (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Washington Spirit (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Utah Royals (W) | 3-1 W | 0-3 L |
| Houston Dash (W) | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Boston Legacy FC (W) | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Racing Louisville FC (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 11/07 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/05 | Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Reign FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 05/07 | North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 31/05 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 02/05 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 27/04 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-3 | 0-3 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 0 | D |
| 28/03 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) win (57%). Probabilities: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 57%, draw 25%, Reign FC (W) 19%.
How many goals are expected in NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)?
The model expects 2.24 goals (NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1.51 · Reign FC (W) 0.73), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Reign FC (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.