Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 25/07, 11:00
Prediction: Aland United (W) vs VIFK (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.14Total
Aland United (W)3.07
VIFK (W)1.07
1X2
Aland United (W)
Draw
VIFK (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
3-1
Recent form · 10 last
Aland United (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
VIFK (W)
0-2-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Aland United (W)
5–1–0
VIFK (W)
(6 last)
- VIFK (W)0-2Aland United (W)
- Aland United (W)2-0VIFK (W)
- VIFK (W)0-2Aland United (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aland United (W) 1585 · VIFK (W) 1371
| Aland United (W) | Draw | VIFK (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 76% | 14% | 9% |
| Market | 91% | 6% | 3% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.14 goals · Bet365 line 4.5 · -0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aland United (W) (rating 1585 vs 1371).
- H2H favours Aland United (W): 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Aland United (W) | VIFK (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.4 / 1.4 | 0.6 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.7 | 0.2 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/0/90% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.1 | 1.6 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 2.1 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aland United (W) 5–1–0 VIFK (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Aland United (W) |
| 24/09/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | VIFK (W) |
| 24/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Aland United (W) |
| 09/08/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 1-4 HT 0-2 | Aland United (W) |
| 15/06/25 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | Aland United (W) | 1-1 HT 1-0 | VIFK (W) |
| 25/07/15 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women | VIFK (W) | 0-4 HT 0-1 | Aland United (W) |
Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HJK (W) | 13 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 9 | 36 |
| 2 | Aland United (W) | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 18 | 25 |
| 3 | KuPS (W) | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 30 | 21 | 25 |
| 4 | HPS (W) | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Ilves (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 25 | 25 | 19 |
| 6 | IF Gnistan (W) | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 21 | 31 | 13 |
| 7 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 13 | 34 | 7 |
| 8 | VIFK (W) | 13 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 34 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Aland United (W) | VIFK (W) |
|---|---|---|
| KuPS (W) | 3-1 W | 1-5 L |
| PK-35 Vantaa (W) | 4-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Ilves (W) | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| HPS (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| HJK (W) | 2-3 L | 0-4 L |
| IF Gnistan (W) | 4-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Aland United (W) (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aland United (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 12/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
4-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 04/07 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 01/07 | KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 28/06 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/06 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
3-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 21/05 | VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 17/05 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-6 | – | – | L |
| 09/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
VIFK (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 12/07 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 27/06 | KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-2 | 1-5 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 14/06 | Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 29/05 | HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-4 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 21/05 | Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 17/05 | PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 10/05 | HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women |
0-1 | 0-6 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aland United (W) vs VIFK (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Aland United (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Aland United (W) 85%, draw 9%, VIFK (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Aland United (W) vs VIFK (W)?
The model expects 4.14 goals (Aland United (W) 3.07 · VIFK (W) 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Aland United (W) vs VIFK (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.