Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

IF Gnistan (W)0.97

KuPS (W)2.5

1X2

12% 17% 70%

IF Gnistan (W) Draw KuPS (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

0-2

Recent form · 10 last

IF Gnistan (W) 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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KuPS (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWLLLL

Head-to-head

IF Gnistan (W) 0–3 KuPS (W) (3 last)

IF Gnistan (W)0-2KuPS (W)
KuPS (W)2-1IF Gnistan (W)
IF Gnistan (W)0-2KuPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IF Gnistan (W) 1461 · KuPS (W) 1532

	IF Gnistan (W)	Draw	KuPS (W)
Our model	12%	18%	70%
Market	13%	16%	71%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours KuPS (W) (rating 1461 vs 1532).
H2H favours KuPS (W): 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IF Gnistan (W)	KuPS (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.5 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	3.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

17.00

X5.50

21.27

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.85

2 (-1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.88

Under 3.51.93

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	1.27 → 1.27	Bet365 1.27

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:07 +2’	7.00	5.50	1.27

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · IF Gnistan (W) 0–0–3 KuPS (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/06/26 Finland Cup Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-2 HT 0-2	KuPS (W)
22/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	KuPS (W)	2-1 HT 0-0	IF Gnistan (W)
18/01/26 Finland Cup Women	IF Gnistan (W)	0-2 HT 0-1	KuPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	13	12	0	1	36	9	36
2	Aland United (W)	13	8	1	4	35	18	25
3	KuPS (W)	13	8	1	4	30	21	25
4	HPS (W)	13	7	3	3	18	13	24
5	Ilves (W)	13	6	1	6	25	25	19
6	IF Gnistan (W)	13	4	1	8	21	31	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa (W)	13	2	1	10	13	34	7
8	VIFK (W)	13	0	2	11	7	34	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IF Gnistan (W)	KuPS (W)
Ilves (W)	2-2 D	2-4 L
HJK (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
VIFK (W)	1-0 W	5-1 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	3-0 W	2-1 W
HPS (W)	0-4 L	2-3 L
Aland United (W)	1-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS (W) (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

IF Gnistan (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
12/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
05/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
27/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
17/06	KuPS (W) Finland Cup Women	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
13/06	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	3	3	L
31/05	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-4	3	4	L
26/05	HIFK (W) Finland Cup Women	1-0	1-0	7	3	W
22/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-2	2	2	L
17/05	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	2-3	8	1	L

KuPS (W)

WLWWWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	1-3	5	6	L
12/07	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	2-4	8	4	L
08/07	HJK (W) Finland Cup Women	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
04/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	0-2	3	3	L
01/07	Aland United (W) Finland Cup Women	2-1	2-1	2	5	W
27/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	5-1	9	2	W
17/06	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Cup Women	2-0	2-0	5	3	W
12/06	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
29/05	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-1	2-3	6	6	L
22/05	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an KuPS (W) win (70%). Probabilities: IF Gnistan (W) 12%, draw 17%, KuPS (W) 70%.

How many goals are expected in IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)?

The model expects 3.47 goals (IF Gnistan (W) 0.97 · KuPS (W) 2.5), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in IF Gnistan (W) vs KuPS (W)?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.