Football · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women · 25/07, 13:00

Prediction: HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

HPS (W)2.13

Ilves (W)1.24

1X2

57% 22% 21%

HPS (W) Draw Ilves (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

HPS (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWDWWWDL

Ilves (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLLWD

Head-to-head

HPS (W) 3–1–2 Ilves (W) (6 last)

Ilves (W)1-0HPS (W)
HPS (W)1-0Ilves (W)
Ilves (W)0-2HPS (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HPS (W) 1547 · Ilves (W) 1523

	HPS (W)	Draw	Ilves (W)
Our model	57%	22%	21%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours HPS (W): 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HPS (W)	Ilves (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.8	2.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.1	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:54 +15’	1.57	4.00	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HPS (W) 3–1–2 Ilves (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/05/26 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
31/08/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-0 HT 0-0	Ilves (W)
09/06/24 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-2 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
26/08/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	0-1 HT 0-0	HPS (W)
10/06/23 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	HPS (W)	1-1 HT 0-1	Ilves (W)
27/08/22 Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	Ilves (W)	4-0 HT 2-0	HPS (W)

Standings · Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HJK (W)	13	12	0	1	36	9	36
2	Aland United (W)	13	8	1	4	35	18	25
3	KuPS (W)	13	8	1	4	30	21	25
4	HPS (W)	13	7	3	3	18	13	24
5	Ilves (W)	13	6	1	6	25	25	19
6	IF Gnistan (W)	13	4	1	8	21	31	13
7	PK-35 Vantaa (W)	13	2	1	10	13	34	7
8	VIFK (W)	13	0	2	11	7	34	2

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HPS (W)	Ilves (W)
HJK (W)	0-4 L	1-3 L
VIFK (W)	1-1 D	3-0 W
PK-35 Vantaa (W)	1-0 W	2-0 W
Aland United (W)	0-0 D	0-2 L
IF Gnistan (W)	4-0 W	2-2 D
KuPS (W)	3-2 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ilves (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

HPS (W)

LLWWDWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-4	5	1	L
12/07	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
08/07	EBK (W) Finland Cup Women	2-0	4-0	6	2	W
04/07	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
01/07	SJK-J (W) Finland Cup Women	0-1	5-1	11	0	W
28/06	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
13/06	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-0	9	3	W
29/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-2	1	6	W
22/05	Ilves (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
17/05	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-2	1-2	6	0	L

Ilves (W)

LLWWWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	2-2	4	0	D
12/07	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	4-2	3	4	W
04/07	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
27/06	HJK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-3	1-3	4	1	L
14/06	VIFK (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-0	3-0	9	2	W
31/05	PK-35 Vantaa (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	2-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/05	HPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
17/05	IF Gnistan (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-2	3-2	2	1	W
09/05	KuPS (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
03/05	Aland United (W) Finland Kansallinen Liiga Women	1-3	1-4	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HPS (W) win (57%). Probabilities: HPS (W) 57%, draw 22%, Ilves (W) 21%.

How many goals are expected in HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model expects 3.37 goals (HPS (W) 2.13 · Ilves (W) 1.24), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HPS (W) vs Ilves (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.