Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League · 08/08, 06:00

Prediction: Newcastle Olympic FC vs Valentine Phoenix

Team pages: Newcastle Olympic FC · Valentine Phoenix

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Newcastle Olympic FC2

Valentine Phoenix1.38

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Newcastle Olympic FC Draw Valentine Phoenix

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Newcastle Olympic FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDWLWL

Valentine Phoenix 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Newcastle Olympic FC 4–2–0 Valentine Phoenix (6 last)

Valentine Phoenix1-6Newcastle Olympic FC
Newcastle Olympic FC2-2Valentine Phoenix
Valentine Phoenix1-3Newcastle Olympic FC
Newcastle Olympic FC0-0Valentine Phoenix
Valentine Phoenix0-2Newcastle Olympic FC
Newcastle Olympic FC2-1Valentine Phoenix

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Newcastle Olympic FC 1476 · Valentine Phoenix 1491

	Newcastle Olympic FC	Draw	Valentine Phoenix
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	52%	22%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Newcastle Olympic FC: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Newcastle Olympic FC	Valentine Phoenix
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.5	1.4 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.10

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.73▲	Bet365 1.73
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:54 +13’	1.67	4.20	3.60
06:45 +9’	1.73▲	4.10▼	3.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Newcastle Olympic FC 4–2–0 Valentine Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	1-6 HT 1-3	Newcastle Olympic FC
15/06/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Newcastle Olympic FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Valentine Phoenix
08/03/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	1-3 HT 1-1	Newcastle Olympic FC
14/07/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Newcastle Olympic FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Valentine Phoenix
22/05/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	0-2 HT 0-1	Newcastle Olympic FC
08/07/23 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Newcastle Olympic FC	2-1 HT 2-0	Valentine Phoenix

Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Broadmeadow Magic	20	14	4	2	51	22	46
2	Weston Workers FC	19	11	3	5	44	31	36
3	Edgeworth Eagles	19	10	5	4	38	29	35
4	Maitland FC	19	10	3	6	34	29	33
5	Belmont Swansea United SC	20	9	5	6	43	40	32
6	Cooks Hill United	20	8	5	7	37	32	29
7	Lambton Jaffas	20	6	4	10	35	31	22
8	Valentine Phoenix	20	6	4	10	20	38	22
9	Newcastle Olympic FC	20	5	6	9	38	36	21
10	Adamstown Rosebud	19	5	5	9	27	37	20
11	Kahibah FC	19	5	2	12	31	47	17
12	Charlestown Azzurri	19	4	2	13	24	50	14

Common opponents 10 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Newcastle Olympic FC	Valentine Phoenix
Edgeworth Eagles	0-2 L	2-1 W
Belmont Swansea United SC	5-2 W	1-1 D
Broadmeadow Magic	1-2 L	1-1 D
Charlestown Azzurri	7-1 W	1-0 W
Cooks Hill United	0-0 D	1-3 L
Maitland FC	0-1 L	0-1 L
Kahibah FC	3-3 D	3-2 W
Adamstown Rosebud	0-2 L	1-2 L
Weston Workers FC	1-2 L	2-0 W
Lambton Jaffas	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 6 L	4 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Valentine Phoenix (6 of 10 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Newcastle Olympic FC

LLLDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	0-2	7	0	L
22/07	Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	4-1	5-2	10	1	W
12/07	Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
01/07	Charlestown Azzurri Australia Northern NSW Premier League	4-0	7-1	1	4	W
27/06	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
21/06	Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
14/06	Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	2-1	3-3	8	3	D
30/05	Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
17/05	Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-2	1-2	6	4	L
10/05	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	1	L

Valentine Phoenix

WDDLWDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-0	1-2	6	1	L
25/07	Charlestown Azzurri Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/07	Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	2-2	3-2	4	4	W
03/07	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
27/06	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
20/06	Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/06	Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
06/06	Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/05	Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
09/05	Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Newcastle Olympic FC vs Valentine Phoenix?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Newcastle Olympic FC win (51%). Probabilities: Newcastle Olympic FC 51%, draw 23%, Valentine Phoenix 26%.

How many goals are expected in Newcastle Olympic FC vs Valentine Phoenix?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Newcastle Olympic FC 2 · Valentine Phoenix 1.38), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Newcastle Olympic FC vs Valentine Phoenix?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.