Football · South Korea K League 1 · 06/09, 12:00
Prediction: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC
Team pages: Gimcheon Sangmu FC · Gwangju FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.24Total
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.48
Gwangju FC0.76
1X2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Draw
Gwangju FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Gwangju FC
0-4-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1–4–1
Gwangju FC
(6 last)
- Gwangju FC1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC1-1Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Gwangju FC1-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-0Gwangju FC
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC2-0Gwangju FC
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (rating 1498 vs 1444).
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.6 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/80/10% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.8 | 1.9 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 2.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–4–1 Gwangju FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 17/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 22/07/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 05/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 16/03/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 28/09/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 52 | 21 | 56 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 41 | 37 | 40 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 23 | 39 |
| 4 | Jeju SK | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 31 | 27 | 38 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 24 | 37 |
| 6 | Pohang Steelers | 26 | 10 | 5 | 11 | 24 | 29 | 35 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 39 | 34 |
| 8 | Incheon Utd | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 32 | 28 | 34 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 32 | 32 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 26 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 28 | 29 | 31 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 26 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 24 | 32 | 27 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 26 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 57 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Incheon Utd | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| FC Seoul | 0-0 D | 2-5 L |
| Pohang Steelers | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Gangwon FC | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Bucheon | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-3 | 12 | 3 | L |
| 25/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 22/08 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 16/08 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 08/08 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
2-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 22/07 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 1 | D |
| 18/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 26/08 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 02/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 26/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 19/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win (53%). Probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53%, draw 29%, Gwangju FC 18%.
How many goals are expected in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
The model expects 2.24 goals (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.48 · Gwangju FC 0.76), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gwangju FC?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.