Football · South Korea K League 1 · 12/09, 09:30

Prediction: Ulsan HD vs Incheon Utd

Team pages: Ulsan HD · Incheon Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

Ulsan HD1.41

Incheon Utd1.15

1X2

42% 29% 30%

Ulsan HD Draw Incheon Utd

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ulsan HD 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLWDW

Incheon Utd 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ulsan HD 3–2–1 Incheon Utd (6 last)

Ulsan HD1-2Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd1-2Ulsan HD
Ulsan HD3-0Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd0-0Ulsan HD
Ulsan HD1-0Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd1-1Ulsan HD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ulsan HD 1523 · Incheon Utd 1497

	Ulsan HD	Draw	Incheon Utd
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	42%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ulsan HD: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ulsan HD	Incheon Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/80/10%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.1	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.31 ★
X	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.33
2	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
06:46 +11’	2.20	3.20	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +7’	2.31	3.33	3.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan HD 3–2–1 Incheon Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/07/26 South Korea K League 1	Ulsan HD	1-2 HT 1-1	Incheon Utd
11/04/26 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-2 HT 0-1	Ulsan HD
14/05/25 South Korea Cup	Ulsan HD	3-0 HT 1-0	Incheon Utd
22/09/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Ulsan HD
17/07/24 South Korea Cup	Ulsan HD	1-0 HT 1-0	Incheon Utd
29/05/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-1 HT 0-0	Ulsan HD

Standings · South Korea K League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	28	18	5	5	53	22	59
2	Ulsan HD	28	13	5	10	42	37	44
3	Jeonbuk Motors	27	11	9	7	34	23	42
4	Gangwon FC	26	10	10	6	33	24	40
5	Jeju SK	27	10	9	8	31	27	39
6	Incheon Utd	27	10	7	10	34	30	37
7	Daejeon Hana Citizen	27	9	8	10	40	32	35
8	Pohang Steelers	27	10	5	12	24	31	35
9	FC Anyang	27	8	10	9	33	42	34
10	Bucheon	28	7	10	11	29	36	31
11	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	27	4	16	7	26	34	28
12	Gwangju FC	27	1	10	16	18	59	13

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ulsan HD	Incheon Utd
FC Seoul	1-0 W	0-1 L
Jeju SK	0-0 D	3-3 D
Gimcheon Sangmu FC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Jeonbuk Motors	0-1 L	1-1 D
FC Anyang	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Ulsan HD (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ulsan HD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
05/09	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
29/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	1-1	3-1	5	3	W
26/08	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-2	2	4	L
22/08	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
16/08	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	1-2	2-3	3	3	L
08/08	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	2-0	3	2	W
02/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-0	3-1	2	1	W
26/07	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
21/07	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Incheon Utd

WWDDDWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/09	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
05/09	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
30/08	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/08	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-2	3	8	L
23/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
02/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
26/07	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
21/07	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	1-0	1-0	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ulsan HD vs Incheon Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ulsan HD win (42%). Probabilities: Ulsan HD 42%, draw 29%, Incheon Utd 30%.

How many goals are expected in Ulsan HD vs Incheon Utd?

The model expects 2.55 goals (Ulsan HD 1.41 · Incheon Utd 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ulsan HD vs Incheon Utd?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.