Football · South Korea K League 1 · 13/09, 09:30

Prediction: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC

Team pages: Gimcheon Sangmu FC · Gangwon FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.02Total

Gimcheon Sangmu FC0.99

Gangwon FC1.04

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC Draw Gangwon FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWDDDDLD

Gangwon FC 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDLLWDDW

Head-to-head

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–1–3 Gangwon FC (6 last)

Gangwon FC2-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-3Gangwon FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC0-1Gangwon FC
Gangwon FC0-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gangwon FC0-4Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1-0Gangwon FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1472 · Gangwon FC 1546

	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	Draw	Gangwon FC
Our model	32%	33%	35%
Market	34%	30%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gangwon FC (rating 1472 vs 1546).
H2H favours Gangwon FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	Gangwon FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	1.4 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.8	3.2 / 6.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:48 +30’	2.70	3.10	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–1–3 Gangwon FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 South Korea K League 1	Gangwon FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
21/04/26 South Korea K League 1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	0-3 HT 0-2	Gangwon FC
08/11/25 South Korea K League 1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Gangwon FC
09/08/25 South Korea K League 1	Gangwon FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
11/05/25 South Korea K League 1	Gangwon FC	0-4 HT 0-2	Gimcheon Sangmu FC
30/03/25 South Korea K League 1	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Gangwon FC

Standings · South Korea K League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	28	18	5	5	53	22	59
2	Ulsan HD	28	13	5	10	42	37	44
3	Jeonbuk Motors	27	11	9	7	34	23	42
4	Gangwon FC	26	10	10	6	33	24	40
5	Jeju SK	27	10	9	8	31	27	39
6	Incheon Utd	27	10	7	10	34	30	37
7	Daejeon Hana Citizen	27	9	8	10	40	32	35
8	Pohang Steelers	27	10	5	12	24	31	35
9	FC Anyang	27	8	10	9	33	42	34
10	Bucheon	28	7	10	11	29	36	31
11	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	27	4	16	7	26	34	28
12	Gwangju FC	27	1	10	16	18	59	13

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	Gangwon FC
Gwangju FC	2-2 D	2-2 D
Ulsan HD	1-3 L	3-2 W
Jeonbuk Motors	0-0 D	2-1 W
Jeju SK	0-0 D	1-1 D
FC Seoul	0-0 D	0-0 D
Pohang Steelers	1-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Gangwon FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

LDWWDDDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
29/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-3	12	3	L
25/08	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	12	3	D
22/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
16/08	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
08/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	1	2	D
01/08	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
25/07	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	2-1	3-2	3	3	W
22/07	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-1	11	1	D
18/07	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	0-2	0-2	3	6	L

Gangwon FC

WDWDLLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	1-0	3-0	2	0	W
30/08	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
26/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-2	2-2	12	3	D
16/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	2-1	3-2	7	3	W
01/08	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-3	6	6	L
26/07	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-2	1-2	10	2	L
21/07	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
18/07	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	2-0	2-0	12	6	W
12/07	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-1	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gangwon FC win (36%). Probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33%, draw 31%, Gangwon FC 36%.

How many goals are expected in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?

The model expects 2.02 goals (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.99 · Gangwon FC 1.04), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Gangwon FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.