Football · South Korea K League 1 · 08/09, 12:30
Prediction: Ulsan HD vs FC Seoul
Team pages: Ulsan HD · FC Seoul
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.19Total
Ulsan HD1.41
FC Seoul1.78
1X2
Ulsan HD
Draw
FC Seoul
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Ulsan HD
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
FC Seoul
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ulsan HD
1–2–3
FC Seoul
(6 last)
- FC Seoul1-3Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD1-4FC Seoul
- FC Seoul3-2Ulsan HD
- FC Seoul1-0Ulsan HD
- Ulsan HD0-0FC Seoul
- FC Seoul1-1Ulsan HD
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ulsan HD 1489 · FC Seoul 1584
| Ulsan HD | Draw | FC Seoul | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Seoul (rating 1489 vs 1584).
- H2H favours FC Seoul: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ulsan HD | FC Seoul | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.3 | 2.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/70/20% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.2 | 3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.1 | 3.6 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ulsan HD 1–2–3 FC Seoul
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Ulsan HD |
| 15/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 1-4 HT 0-3 | FC Seoul |
| 24/08/25 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 3-2 HT 3-1 | Ulsan HD |
| 20/07/25 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Ulsan HD |
| 05/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | Ulsan HD | 0-0 HT 0-0 | FC Seoul |
| 10/11/24 South Korea K League 1 | FC Seoul | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Ulsan HD |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 53 | 21 | 59 |
| 2 | Jeonbuk Motors | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 34 | 23 | 42 |
| 3 | Ulsan HD | 27 | 12 | 5 | 10 | 41 | 37 | 41 |
| 4 | Jeju SK | 27 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 31 | 27 | 39 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 25 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 30 | 24 | 37 |
| 6 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 40 | 32 | 35 |
| 7 | Pohang Steelers | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 31 | 35 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 33 | 39 | 34 |
| 9 | Incheon Utd | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 32 | 29 | 34 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 27 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 28 | 34 | 31 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 26 | 4 | 15 | 7 | 24 | 32 | 27 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 26 | 1 | 9 | 16 | 16 | 57 | 12 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ulsan HD | FC Seoul |
|---|---|---|
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 1-2 L | 4-2 W |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Pohang Steelers | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| FC Anyang | 3-1 W | 7-0 W |
| Incheon Utd | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 3 L | 4 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Seoul (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ulsan HD
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Jeju SK South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 29/08 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 22/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 16/08 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 21/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
FC Seoul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 30/08 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
3-1 | 5-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 25/08 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
5-0 | 7-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 15/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 4-2 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 08/08 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 01/08 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 19/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ulsan HD vs FC Seoul?
According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Seoul win (45%). Probabilities: Ulsan HD 29%, draw 26%, FC Seoul 45%.
How many goals are expected in Ulsan HD vs FC Seoul?
The model expects 3.19 goals (Ulsan HD 1.41 · FC Seoul 1.78), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ulsan HD vs FC Seoul?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.