Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 01/08, 09:00

Prediction: Hills United FC vs Bankstown City Lions FC

Team pages: Hills United FC · Bankstown City Lions FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Hills United FC1.33

Bankstown City Lions FC1.71

1X2

30% 25% 46%

Hills United FC Draw Bankstown City Lions FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hills United FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWDLLDWL

Bankstown City Lions FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDLWWDDWW

Head-to-head

Hills United FC 1–3–2 Bankstown City Lions FC (6 last)

Bankstown City Lions FC2-0Hills United FC
Bankstown City Lions FC0-0Hills United FC
Hills United FC1-1Bankstown City Lions FC
Hills United FC2-0Bankstown City Lions FC
Bankstown City Lions FC3-3Hills United FC
Bankstown City Lions FC3-2Hills United FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hills United FC 1495 · Bankstown City Lions FC 1566

	Hills United FC	Draw	Bankstown City Lions FC
Our model	29%	26%	45%
Market	30%	24%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bankstown City Lions FC (rating 1495 vs 1566).
H2H favours Bankstown City Lions FC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hills United FC	Bankstown City Lions FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.1	2.3 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
08:03 +7’	3.00	3.75	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hills United FC 1–3–2 Bankstown City Lions FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Bankstown City Lions FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Hills United FC
02/08/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Bankstown City Lions FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Hills United FC
19/04/25 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hills United FC	1-1 HT 1-0	Bankstown City Lions FC
20/05/23 Australia New South Wales League 1	Hills United FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Bankstown City Lions FC
04/02/23 Australia New South Wales League 1	Bankstown City Lions FC	3-3 HT 2-3	Hills United FC
29/04/17 Australia New South Wales League 2	Bankstown City Lions FC	3-2 HT 3-1	Hills United FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	25	17	5	3	63	31	56
2	Northern Tigers	25	13	7	5	43	25	46
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	25	14	4	7	47	38	46
4	Macarthur Rams	25	12	6	7	33	27	42
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	25	12	5	8	58	41	41
6	Rydalmere Lions FC	25	10	7	8	37	35	37
7	Hills United FC	25	10	6	9	43	41	36
8	Bulls FC Academy	25	11	3	11	47	40	36
9	Hakoah Sydney City East	25	8	9	8	42	40	33
10	Hurstville FC	25	9	6	10	39	40	33
11	Central Coast Mariners U21	25	7	6	12	41	50	27
12	Inter Lions	25	7	5	13	30	47	26
13	Newcastle Jets NPL	25	6	8	11	47	56	26
14	Dulwich Hill	25	6	8	11	31	47	26
15	Prospect United	25	2	13	10	24	44	19
16	Western City Rangers	25	5	4	16	29	52	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hills United FC	Bankstown City Lions FC
Hakoah Sydney City East	2-1 W	2-1 W
Northern Tigers	1-2 L	1-1 D
Macarthur Rams	3-2 W	1-1 D
Bulls FC Academy	2-2 D	5-0 W
Dulwich Hill	6-0 W	2-2 D
Blacktown Spartans	1-1 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hills United FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hills United FC

DWDWDLLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
18/07	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	4	2	W
11/07	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
04/07	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
27/06	Hurstville FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-2	1	4	L
20/06	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
13/06	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
05/06	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	2-2	2-2	5	1	D
30/05	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	3-0	6-0	5	0	W
23/05	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	7	4	D

Bankstown City Lions FC

DWDLWWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
18/07	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	5-0	2	3	W
10/07	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-1	2	7	D
04/07	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	2-1	2-2	6	2	D
27/06	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
20/06	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
12/06	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-4	4	1	L
06/06	Northern Tigers Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	4	4	D
30/05	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
23/05	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	2-2	2-2	8	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hills United FC vs Bankstown City Lions FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bankstown City Lions FC win (46%). Probabilities: Hills United FC 30%, draw 25%, Bankstown City Lions FC 46%.

How many goals are expected in Hills United FC vs Bankstown City Lions FC?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Hills United FC 1.33 · Bankstown City Lions FC 1.71), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hills United FC vs Bankstown City Lions FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.