Football · Australia New South Wales League 1 · 01/08, 09:00

Prediction: Hurstville FC vs Northern Tigers

Team pages: Hurstville FC · Northern Tigers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Hurstville FC1.18

Northern Tigers1.48

1X2

30% 26% 44%

Hurstville FC Draw Northern Tigers

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hurstville FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLDWW

Northern Tigers 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Hurstville FC 0–1 Northern Tigers (1 last)

Northern Tigers1-0Hurstville FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hurstville FC 1518 · Northern Tigers 1533

	Hurstville FC	Draw	Northern Tigers
Our model	29%	28%	43%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hurstville FC	Northern Tigers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.2	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.4	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.75

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.00

2 (-0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +9’	2.90	3.75	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hurstville FC 0–0–1 Northern Tigers

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia New South Wales League 1	Northern Tigers	1-0 HT 0-0	Hurstville FC

Standings · Australia New South Wales League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Blacktown Spartans	25	17	5	3	63	31	56
2	Northern Tigers	25	13	7	5	43	25	46
3	Bankstown City Lions FC	25	14	4	7	47	38	46
4	Macarthur Rams	25	12	6	7	33	27	42
5	Canterbury Bankstown FC	25	12	5	8	58	41	41
6	Rydalmere Lions FC	25	10	7	8	37	35	37
7	Hills United FC	25	10	6	9	43	41	36
8	Bulls FC Academy	25	11	3	11	47	40	36
9	Hakoah Sydney City East	25	8	9	8	42	40	33
10	Hurstville FC	25	9	6	10	39	40	33
11	Central Coast Mariners U21	25	7	6	12	41	50	27
12	Inter Lions	25	7	5	13	30	47	26
13	Newcastle Jets NPL	25	6	8	11	47	56	26
14	Dulwich Hill	25	6	8	11	31	47	26
15	Prospect United	25	2	13	10	24	44	19
16	Western City Rangers	25	5	4	16	29	52	19

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hurstville FC	Northern Tigers
Dulwich Hill	3-1 W	3-1 W
Hakoah Sydney City East	1-1 D	0-1 L
Canterbury Bankstown FC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Hills United FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Inter Lions	1-2 L	1-0 W
Newcastle Jets NPL	1-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hurstville FC (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hurstville FC

WWLDLWLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Macarthur Rams Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	2-1	6	8	W
17/07	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	3-1	9	4	W
11/07	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	10	3	D
03/07	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
27/06	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	4	W
20/06	Bulls FC Academy Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	1-4	–	–	L
13/06	Western City Rangers Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
06/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-2	5	4	L
30/05	Rydalmere Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/05	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W

Northern Tigers

LWDWLWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Blacktown Spartans Australia New South Wales League 1	0-3	0-3	7	1	L
19/07	Central Coast Mariners U21 Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
11/07	Newcastle Jets NPL Australia New South Wales League 1	1-2	2-2	8	5	D
04/07	Hills United FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-1	2-1	2	3	W
27/06	Dulwich Hill Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-1	8	1	W
20/06	Hakoah Sydney City East Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
13/06	Inter Lions Australia New South Wales League 1	1-0	1-0	8	5	W
06/06	Bankstown City Lions FC Australia New South Wales League 1	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
31/05	Prospect United Australia New South Wales League 1	2-0	3-0	3	2	W
23/05	Canterbury Bankstown FC Australia New South Wales League 1	0-0	1-2	11	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hurstville FC vs Northern Tigers?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Northern Tigers win (44%). Probabilities: Hurstville FC 30%, draw 26%, Northern Tigers 44%.

How many goals are expected in Hurstville FC vs Northern Tigers?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Hurstville FC 1.18 · Northern Tigers 1.48), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hurstville FC vs Northern Tigers?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.