Prediction: Rockdale Ilinden FC vs NWS Spirit FC
Expected goals: 2.77 (Rockdale Ilinden FC 1.5 · NWS Spirit FC 1.27). The model gives 42% home, 26% draw, 31% away. Under 2.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (55%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Over its last 10 matches, Rockdale Ilinden FC sits at 5-1-4 (W-D-L), while NWS Spirit FC arrives on a 3-1-6 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Rockdale Ilinden FC won 3 and NWS Spirit FC 1, with 2 draws.
| Rockdale Ilinden FC | Draw | NWS Spirit FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 28% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 32% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rockdale Ilinden FC (rating 1543 vs 1464).
- H2H favours Rockdale Ilinden FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Rockdale Ilinden FC | NWS Spirit FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.1 | 0.8 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.2 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.6 | 2.1 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.6 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Rockdale Ilinden FC 3–2–1 NWS Spirit FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Rockdale Ilinden FC |
| 07/09/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Rockdale Ilinden FC |
| 19/07/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 6-3 HT 4-0 | Rockdale Ilinden FC |
| 06/04/25 Australia New South Wales Premier League | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | NWS Spirit FC |
| 17/07/24 Australia New South Wales Cup | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 5-0 HT 3-0 | NWS Spirit FC |
| 06/07/24 Australia New South Wales Premier League | NWS Spirit FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Rockdale Ilinden FC |
Standings · Australia New South Wales Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marconi Stallions | 21 | 15 | 4 | 2 | 40 | 14 | 49 |
| 2 | Apia L Tigers | 21 | 15 | 3 | 3 | 43 | 23 | 48 |
| 3 | Sydney United 58 | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 17 | 44 |
| 4 | Rockdale Ilinden FC | 21 | 11 | 2 | 8 | 35 | 30 | 35 |
| 5 | Sydney FC U21 | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 34 |
| 6 | Sutherland Sharks | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 32 | 26 | 32 |
| 7 | Wollongong Wolves | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 21 | 23 | 31 |
| 8 | NWS Spirit FC | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 9 | SD Raiders | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 29 | 35 | 26 |
| 10 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 | 21 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 40 | 30 | 26 |
| 11 | Manly Utd | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 28 | 24 |
| 12 | St George City FA | 21 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 19 | 32 | 24 |
| 13 | University NSW | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 27 | 33 | 22 |
| 14 | St George Saints | 21 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 21 | 34 | 19 |
| 15 | Blacktown City | 21 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 27 | 38 | 18 |
| 16 | Sydney Olympic | 21 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 15 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Rockdale Ilinden FC | NWS Spirit FC |
|---|---|---|
| Apia L Tigers | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Sydney Olympic | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| SD Raiders | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Blacktown City | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Marconi Stallions | 1-1 D | 0-3 L |
| Sydney FC U21 | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Rockdale Ilinden FC (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rockdale Ilinden FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 14/06 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 07/06 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 30/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia Cup Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 24/05 | Western Sydney Wanderers U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-5 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 16/05 | University NSW Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Hakoah Sydney City East Australia Cup Qualifying |
2-0 | 5-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
3-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
NWS Spirit FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Wollongong Wolves Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 20/06 | St George City FA Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Sydney Olympic Australia New South Wales Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 05/06 | Sydney FC U21 Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 30/05 | Apia L Tigers Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 23/05 | Sutherland Sharks Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Marconi Stallions Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-2 | 0-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 09/05 | SD Raiders Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 02/05 | Manly Utd Australia New South Wales Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Blacktown City Australia New South Wales Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rockdale Ilinden FC vs NWS Spirit FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Rockdale Ilinden FC win (42%). Probabilities: Rockdale Ilinden FC 42%, draw 26%, NWS Spirit FC 31%.
How many goals are expected in Rockdale Ilinden FC vs NWS Spirit FC?
The model expects 2.77 goals (Rockdale Ilinden FC 1.5 · NWS Spirit FC 1.27), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Rockdale Ilinden FC vs NWS Spirit FC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.