Football · USA USL League One · 20/09, 00:00
Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs Charlotte Independence
Team pages: Richmond Kickers · Charlotte Independence
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.57Total
Richmond Kickers1.46
Charlotte Independence2.12
1X2
Richmond Kickers
Draw
Charlotte Independence
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Richmond Kickers
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Charlotte Independence
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Richmond Kickers
0–6
Charlotte Independence
(6 last)
- Charlotte Independence3-1Richmond Kickers
- Richmond Kickers1-2Charlotte Independence
- Richmond Kickers2-3Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence3-0Richmond Kickers
- Charlotte Independence1-0Richmond Kickers
- Richmond Kickers0-1Charlotte Independence
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Richmond Kickers 1423 · Charlotte Independence 1563
| Richmond Kickers | Draw | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 26% | 23% | 52% |
| Market | 26% | 22% | 52% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1423 vs 1563).
- H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 6-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Richmond Kickers | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2.3 | 2.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1.6 | 1.6 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/0/80% | 70/20/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.3 | 2.3 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 4.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Richmond Kickers 0–0–6 Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Richmond Kickers |
| 26/04/26 USA USL Cup | Richmond Kickers | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Charlotte Independence |
| 21/09/25 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Charlotte Independence |
| 27/07/25 USA USL Cup | Charlotte Independence | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Richmond Kickers |
| 16/03/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Richmond Kickers |
| 27/10/24 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Charlotte Independence |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 27 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 29 | 55 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 26 | 16 | 5 | 5 | 61 | 38 | 53 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 47 | 26 | 48 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 26 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 43 | 29 | 47 |
| 5 | AC Boise | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 35 | 45 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 46 | 37 | 42 |
| 7 | Spokane Velocity FC | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 34 | 31 | 39 |
| 8 | Fort Wayne FC | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 36 |
| 9 | Corpus Christi FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 30 | 36 | 33 |
| 10 | Antelope Valley Alta | 27 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 34 | 37 | 32 |
| 11 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 38 | 45 | 29 |
| 12 | FC Naples | 25 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 27 | 41 | 27 |
| 13 | Sarasota Paradise | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 39 | 27 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 44 | 44 | 26 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 42 | 23 |
| 16 | New York Cosmos | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 50 | 22 |
| 17 | Richmond Kickers | 25 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 24 | 51 | 20 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Richmond Kickers | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Westchester SC | 2-5 L | 5-4 W |
| Forward Madison FC | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Portland Hearts of Pine | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Union Omaha | 1-5 L | 0-2 L |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 3-2 W | 5-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 3 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Richmond Kickers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
0-5 | 2-5 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 13/09 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 03/09 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 17/08 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 06/08 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-2 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 26/07 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-3 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 19/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/09 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
4-2 | 5-4 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 06/09 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 03/09 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
4-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 23/08 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 16/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 09/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 02/08 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs Charlotte Independence?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Charlotte Independence win (52%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 26%, draw 23%, Charlotte Independence 52%.
How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs Charlotte Independence?
The model expects 3.57 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.46 · Charlotte Independence 2.12), with a 52% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Charlotte Independence?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.