Football · USA USL League One · 17/09, 03:00

Prediction: AC Boise vs Charlotte Independence

Team pages: AC Boise · Charlotte Independence

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

AC Boise1.81

Charlotte Independence1.43

1X2

46% 24% 30%

AC Boise Draw Charlotte Independence

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

AC Boise 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Charlotte Independence 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

AC Boise 0–1 Charlotte Independence (1 last)

Charlotte Independence1-0AC Boise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AC Boise 1575 · Charlotte Independence 1542

	AC Boise	Draw	Charlotte Independence
Our model	46%	25%	30%
Market	46%	24%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AC Boise	Charlotte Independence
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.97
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.23 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +7’	1.95	3.70	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:26 +47’	1.97	3.65	3.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · AC Boise 0–0–1 Charlotte Independence

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-0 HT 0-0	AC Boise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	25	16	4	5	60	37	52
2	Union Omaha	26	16	4	6	45	28	52
3	Forward Madison FC	25	14	6	5	47	25	48
4	AC Boise	25	13	5	7	40	34	44
5	One Knoxville SC	25	12	8	5	40	27	44
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	24	12	3	9	45	37	39
7	Spokane Velocity FC	22	12	3	7	33	28	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	24	10	6	8	37	30	36
9	Antelope Valley Alta	26	8	8	10	34	36	32
10	Corpus Christi FC	25	7	9	9	29	36	30
11	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
12	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	25	6	8	11	37	45	26
14	Westchester SC	25	6	5	14	39	42	23
15	Greenville Triumph SC	24	6	5	13	29	41	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	24	5	5	14	22	46	20

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AC Boise	Charlotte Independence
One Knoxville SC	2-2 D	3-1 W
Forward Madison FC	2-1 W	1-1 D
Greenville Triumph SC	2-3 L	1-0 W
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-1 W	3-2 W
Westchester SC	1-0 W	5-4 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AC Boise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	2	3	W
06/09	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	5	W
30/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	4	6	W
23/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
09/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
02/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
30/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
26/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	6	W

Charlotte Independence

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	4-2	5-4	4	7	W
06/09	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
03/09	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	5	4	W
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
09/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
02/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	6	0	W
23/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AC Boise vs Charlotte Independence?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AC Boise win (46%). Probabilities: AC Boise 46%, draw 24%, Charlotte Independence 30%.

How many goals are expected in AC Boise vs Charlotte Independence?

The model expects 3.25 goals (AC Boise 1.81 · Charlotte Independence 1.43), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in AC Boise vs Charlotte Independence?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.