Football · USA USL League One · 20/09, 01:00

Prediction: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Team pages: Chattanooga Red Wolves · Portland Hearts of Pine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.99

Portland Hearts of Pine1.24

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Chattanooga Red Wolves Draw Portland Hearts of Pine

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Chattanooga Red Wolves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Portland Hearts of Pine 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chattanooga Red Wolves 2–1–1 Portland Hearts of Pine (4 last)

Portland Hearts of Pine1-2Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves0-1Portland Hearts of Pine
Portland Hearts of Pine1-1Chattanooga Red Wolves
Chattanooga Red Wolves2-1Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1510 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1465

	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Draw	Portland Hearts of Pine
Our model	54%	24%	23%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga Red Wolves (rating 1510 vs 1465).
H2H favours Chattanooga Red Wolves: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Portland Hearts of Pine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/0/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.88

2 (+0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +16’	1.67	3.75	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +131’	1.68	3.87	4.17
13:35 +74’	1.66▼	4.00▲	4.18▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga Red Wolves 2–1–1 Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	1-2 HT 0-1	Chattanooga Red Wolves
02/11/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 HT 0-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
14/09/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	1-1 HT 0-1	Chattanooga Red Wolves
08/06/25 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	2-1 HT 2-1	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	27	17	4	6	48	29	55
2	Charlotte Independence	26	16	5	5	61	38	53
3	Forward Madison FC	26	14	6	6	47	26	48
4	One Knoxville SC	26	13	8	5	43	29	47
5	AC Boise	26	13	6	7	41	35	45
6	Chattanooga Red Wolves	25	13	3	9	46	37	42
7	Spokane Velocity FC	23	12	3	8	34	31	39
8	Fort Wayne FC	25	10	6	9	39	33	36
9	Corpus Christi FC	26	8	9	9	30	36	33
10	Antelope Valley Alta	27	8	8	11	34	37	32
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	26	7	8	11	38	45	29
12	FC Naples	25	8	3	14	27	41	27
13	Sarasota Paradise	25	7	6	12	27	39	27
14	Westchester SC	26	7	5	14	44	44	26
15	Greenville Triumph SC	25	6	5	14	29	42	23
16	New York Cosmos	25	6	4	15	31	50	22
17	Richmond Kickers	25	5	5	15	24	51	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Portland Hearts of Pine
Forward Madison FC	1-0 W	1-2 L
Richmond Kickers	1-1 D	1-1 D
Greenville Triumph SC	3-1 W	3-3 D
Westchester SC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Fort Wayne FC	2-1 W	1-4 L
Union Omaha	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chattanooga Red Wolves (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/09	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	6	7	W
13/09	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	9	5	D
06/09	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	1	2	W
03/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
30/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	3	6	L
23/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
20/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
16/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
30/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-3	2-5	5	5	L

Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/09	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	8	8	W
07/09	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	5	W
03/09	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	1	4	L
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-1	3-3	3	2	D
23/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chattanooga Red Wolves win (54%). Probabilities: Chattanooga Red Wolves 54%, draw 24%, Portland Hearts of Pine 22%.

How many goals are expected in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.99 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.24), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.