Football · USA USL League One · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Chattanooga Red Wolves vs AC Boise

Team pages: Chattanooga Red Wolves · AC Boise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.45

AC Boise1.65

1X2

32% 26% 41%

Chattanooga Red Wolves Draw AC Boise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chattanooga Red Wolves 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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AC Boise 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Chattanooga Red Wolves 0–1 AC Boise (1 last)

AC Boise2-1Chattanooga Red Wolves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1502 · AC Boise 1539

	Chattanooga Red Wolves	Draw	AC Boise
Our model	33%	26%	41%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chattanooga Red Wolves	AC Boise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.2	2.5 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.40

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.80▲	Bet365 2.80
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.46 ★
2	2.40 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.23

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +52’	2.50	3.40	2.40
15:57 +14’	2.80▲	3.40	2.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:50	3.05	3.49	2.01
16:09 +1’	2.94▼	3.53▲	2.10▲
17:59 +1’	2.77▼	3.46▼	2.23▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chattanooga Red Wolves 0–0–1 AC Boise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 USA USL League One	AC Boise	2-1 HT 2-0	Chattanooga Red Wolves

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	23	14	3	6	40	26	45
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
3	Forward Madison FC	21	12	4	5	41	22	40
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	20	11	2	7	29	26	35
6	AC Boise	22	10	5	7	33	31	35
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	20	10	2	8	38	32	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	24	8	8	8	33	29	32
9	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	FC Naples	22	8	2	12	27	35	26
12	Westchester SC	21	6	5	10	33	31	23
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
15	Greenville Triumph SC	21	5	5	11	23	35	20
16	Richmond Kickers	21	5	4	12	20	41	19
17	New York Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chattanooga Red Wolves	AC Boise
New York Cosmos	3-3 D	2-1 W
Union Omaha	1-3 L	1-0 W
Forward Madison FC	2-5 L	2-1 W
One Knoxville SC	1-0 W	2-2 D
Corpus Christi FC	1-2 L	0-0 D
Westchester SC	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AC Boise (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-1	3-3	3	4	D
20/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	1-3	2-3	4	2	L
16/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
30/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-3	2-5	5	5	L
26/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	4-2	5	3	W
16/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
05/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
02/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	10	5	W

AC Boise

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-2	2-2	8	3	D
09/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	7	7	W
02/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	11	6	D
30/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-2	2-3	6	5	L
26/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	3	3	W
18/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	5	3	W
06/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
03/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	5	L
21/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
14/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-5	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs AC Boise?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AC Boise win (41%). Probabilities: Chattanooga Red Wolves 32%, draw 26%, AC Boise 41%.

How many goals are expected in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs AC Boise?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.45 · AC Boise 1.65), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Chattanooga Red Wolves vs AC Boise?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.