Football · USA USL League One · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne FC

Team pages: Portland Hearts of Pine · Fort Wayne FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

Portland Hearts of Pine1.6

Fort Wayne FC1.6

1X2

37% 25% 37%

Portland Hearts of Pine Draw Fort Wayne FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Hearts of Pine 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDLLDD

Fort Wayne FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Portland Hearts of Pine 0–1 Fort Wayne FC (1 last)

Fort Wayne FC3-0Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Hearts of Pine 1444 · Fort Wayne FC 1467

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Draw	Fort Wayne FC
Our model	37%	25%	37%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Hearts of Pine	Fort Wayne FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.3	2.6 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Pinn 2.46
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.97 ★
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +3’	2.40	3.60	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:59 +1’	2.46	3.95	2.32
09:45 +1’	2.46	3.97▲	2.31▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Hearts of Pine 0–0–1 Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/05/26 USA USL League One	Fort Wayne FC	3-0 HT 0-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	23	14	3	6	40	26	45
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
3	Forward Madison FC	21	12	4	5	41	22	40
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	20	11	2	7	29	26	35
6	AC Boise	22	10	5	7	33	31	35
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	20	10	2	8	38	32	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	24	8	8	8	33	29	32
9	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	FC Naples	22	8	2	12	27	35	26
12	Westchester SC	21	6	5	10	33	31	23
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
15	Greenville Triumph SC	21	5	5	11	23	35	20
16	Richmond Kickers	21	5	4	12	20	41	19
17	New York Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Hearts of Pine	Fort Wayne FC
Richmond Kickers	1-1 D	2-0 W
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Forward Madison FC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Greenville Triumph SC	3-3 D	3-0 W
Union Omaha	1-2 L	0-2 L
Westchester SC	1-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fort Wayne FC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-1	3-3	3	2	D
23/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
18/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
04/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	7	1	W
25/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-1	5-1	3	8	W
20/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	1-5	4	3	L

Fort Wayne FC

DDWWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	10	6	L
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
05/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
21/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
11/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Hearts of Pine win (37%). Probabilities: Portland Hearts of Pine 37%, draw 25%, Fort Wayne FC 37%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne FC?

The model expects 3.21 goals (Portland Hearts of Pine 1.6 · Fort Wayne FC 1.6), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Fort Wayne FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.