Football · USA USL League One · 30/08, 02:00

Prediction: Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos

Team pages: Union Omaha · New York Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Union Omaha2.39

New York Cosmos1

1X2

68% 19% 14%

Union Omaha Draw New York Cosmos

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Union Omaha 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWDWWWWDL

New York Cosmos 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Union Omaha 1–0 New York Cosmos (1 last)

New York Cosmos1-2Union Omaha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Omaha 1535 · New York Cosmos 1467

	Union Omaha	Draw	New York Cosmos
Our model	67%	19%	13%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1535 vs 1467).
High corners: 13.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Omaha	New York Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 8.4	2.3 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.2	4.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.53
2	6.00 → 6.50▲	Pinn 7.25 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.4% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:06 +5’	1.36	4.75	6.00
18:00 +2’	1.25▼	5.50▲	7.50▲
23:41 +13’	1.33▲	5.00▼	6.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:02	1.29	5.53	7.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Omaha 1–0–0 New York Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/05/26 USA USL League One	New York Cosmos	1-2 HT 0-0	Union Omaha

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	23	14	3	6	40	26	45
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
3	Forward Madison FC	21	12	4	5	41	22	40
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	20	11	2	7	29	26	35
6	AC Boise	22	10	5	7	33	31	35
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	20	10	2	8	38	32	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	24	8	8	8	33	29	32
9	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	FC Naples	22	8	2	12	27	35	26
12	Westchester SC	21	6	5	10	33	31	23
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
15	Greenville Triumph SC	21	5	5	11	23	35	20
16	Richmond Kickers	21	5	4	12	20	41	19
17	New York Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Omaha	New York Cosmos
FC Naples	0-2 L	1-0 W
Richmond Kickers	5-1 W	0-2 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-1 W	3-3 D
Westchester SC	2-2 D	0-3 L
Antelope Valley Alta	3-1 W	1-0 W
AC Boise	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Omaha

LLWDWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	16	3	L
23/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	8	D
17/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	3-1	5-1	13	4	W
09/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	8	5	W
02/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
19/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
02/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	12	3	W
21/06	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
14/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	7	6	L

New York Cosmos

LLWDLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-2	3-3	8	4	D
20/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	5	7	W
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
09/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	12	4	L
21/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Omaha win (68%). Probabilities: Union Omaha 68%, draw 19%, New York Cosmos 14%.

How many goals are expected in Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Union Omaha 2.39 · New York Cosmos 1), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs New York Cosmos?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.