Football · USA USL League One · 03/09, 01:30

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Portland Hearts of Pine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.76Total

Charlotte Independence2.5

Portland Hearts of Pine1.26

1X2

63% 20% 17%

Charlotte Independence Draw Portland Hearts of Pine

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Portland Hearts of Pine 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WWLLDLLDDL

Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 0–1–1 Portland Hearts of Pine (2 last)

Portland Hearts of Pine4-2Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence1-1Portland Hearts of Pine

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1526 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1451

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	Portland Hearts of Pine
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	63%	21%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.76 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1526 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	Portland Hearts of Pine
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.3	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 0.1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	80/20/0%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.7	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.33

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.96 ★
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:12 +3’	1.42	4.33	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:15	1.41	4.96	5.47

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 0–1–1 Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	4-2 HT 1-1	Charlotte Independence
20/07/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	1-1 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Charlotte Independence	22	14	4	4	52	29	46
2	Union Omaha	24	14	4	6	41	27	46
3	Forward Madison FC	22	13	4	5	43	23	43
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	21	12	2	7	32	27	38
6	AC Boise	23	11	5	7	36	33	38
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	21	10	2	9	40	35	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	25	8	8	9	33	34	32
9	Fort Wayne FC	21	8	6	7	30	25	30
10	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
11	FC Naples	23	8	2	13	27	39	26
12	Westchester SC	22	6	5	11	34	34	23
13	Greenville Triumph SC	22	6	5	11	27	35	23
14	Portland Hearts of Pine	23	5	8	10	33	41	23
15	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
16	New York Cosmos	22	5	4	13	25	44	19
17	Richmond Kickers	22	5	4	13	21	43	19

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	Portland Hearts of Pine
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 W	3-3 D
One Knoxville SC	3-1 W	1-1 D
Richmond Kickers	3-1 W	1-1 D
Corpus Christi FC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte Independence

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	4-0	5-0	3	4	W
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
09/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
02/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	6	0	W
23/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	2-4	5	3	L
06/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	5	W

Portland Hearts of Pine

WWLLDLLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
23/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
20/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-1	3-3	3	2	D
23/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
18/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
04/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	7	1	W
25/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-1	5-1	3	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (63%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 63%, draw 20%, Portland Hearts of Pine 17%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model expects 3.76 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.5 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.26), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.