Football · USA USL League One · 23/08, 01:00

Prediction: Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise

Team pages: Union Omaha · Sarasota Paradise

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Union Omaha2.15

Sarasota Paradise1.11

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Union Omaha Draw Sarasota Paradise

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Union Omaha 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLWDWWWW

Sarasota Paradise 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDDLLW

Head-to-head

Union Omaha 0–1 Sarasota Paradise (1 last)

Sarasota Paradise2-0Union Omaha

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Union Omaha 1543 · Sarasota Paradise 1491

	Union Omaha	Draw	Sarasota Paradise
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Omaha (rating 1543 vs 1491).
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Union Omaha	Sarasota Paradise
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	1.3 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 7.2	2.8 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.2	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.32
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.59 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
23:01 +4’	1.48	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:05	1.43	4.41	5.81
04:08 +3’	1.43▲	4.45▲	5.89▲
10:59 +40’	1.40▼	4.59▲	6.25▲
17:17 +13’	1.39▼	4.66▲	6.34▲
18:45 +19’	1.47▲	4.32▼	5.59▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Union Omaha 0–0–1 Sarasota Paradise

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/06/26 USA USL League One	Sarasota Paradise	2-0 HT 0-0	Union Omaha

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	21	14	2	5	39	23	44
2	Charlotte Independence	20	13	3	4	46	28	42
3	Forward Madison FC	20	12	3	5	40	21	39
4	One Knoxville SC	21	11	5	5	35	23	38
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	19	10	2	7	27	25	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	23	8	8	7	32	27	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	19	10	1	8	35	29	31
9	Corpus Christi FC	22	7	8	7	26	30	29
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	Westchester SC	20	6	4	10	31	29	22
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	21	5	7	9	31	36	22
13	Sarasota Paradise	21	6	3	12	22	35	21
14	FC Naples	20	6	2	12	23	34	20
15	Greenville Triumph SC	20	5	5	10	22	33	20
16	Richmond Kickers	20	5	3	12	19	40	18
17	New York Cosmos	20	5	2	13	21	40	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Union Omaha	Sarasota Paradise
Richmond Kickers	5-1 W	0-0 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	3-1 W	3-2 W
Antelope Valley Alta	3-1 W	1-3 L
AC Boise	0-1 L	2-0 W
Charlotte Independence	0-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Union Omaha (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Union Omaha

WLLLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	3-1	5-1	13	4	W
09/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	8	5	W
02/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
23/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	4	6	W
19/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-1	2-2	7	5	D
02/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	3-1	12	3	W
21/06	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
14/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	7	6	L
11/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
31/05	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	8	4	W

Sarasota Paradise

WWLWLDDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-1	3-2	8	2	W
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
31/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	4	7	W
28/05	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	0	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Union Omaha win (60%). Probabilities: Union Omaha 60%, draw 22%, Sarasota Paradise 18%.

How many goals are expected in Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Union Omaha 2.15 · Sarasota Paradise 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Union Omaha vs Sarasota Paradise?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.