Football · USA USL League One · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison FC

Team pages: Richmond Kickers · Forward Madison FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Richmond Kickers1.33

Forward Madison FC1.8

1X2

27% 25% 48%

Richmond Kickers Draw Forward Madison FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Richmond Kickers 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLWWLD

Forward Madison FC 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLDWD

Head-to-head

Richmond Kickers 2–1–3 Forward Madison FC (6 last)

Forward Madison FC4-0Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers5-1Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC1-0Richmond Kickers
Richmond Kickers1-2Forward Madison FC
Richmond Kickers2-1Forward Madison FC
Forward Madison FC2-2Richmond Kickers

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Richmond Kickers 1460 · Forward Madison FC 1576

	Richmond Kickers	Draw	Forward Madison FC
Our model	27%	25%	48%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1460 vs 1576).
H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Richmond Kickers	Forward Madison FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.4	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.9	3.4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.60

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 02:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 3.30▼	Pinn 3.35
X	3.80 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.66 ★
2	1.67 → 1.90▲	Pinn 1.92

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +13’	4.00	3.80	1.67
17:57 +3’	3.30▼	3.60▼	1.85▲
02:40 +2’	3.30	3.60	1.90▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:09 +1’	3.35	3.66	1.92

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Richmond Kickers 2–1–3 Forward Madison FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
16/07/26 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	4-0 HT 2-0	Richmond Kickers
26/10/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	5-1 HT 3-1	Forward Madison FC
14/09/25 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Richmond Kickers
29/03/25 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	1-2 HT 0-1	Forward Madison FC
04/07/24 USA USL League One	Richmond Kickers	2-1 HT 1-0	Forward Madison FC
14/04/24 USA USL League One	Forward Madison FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Richmond Kickers

Standings · USA USL League One

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	23	14	3	6	40	26	45
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
3	Forward Madison FC	21	12	4	5	41	22	40
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	20	11	2	7	29	26	35
6	AC Boise	22	10	5	7	33	31	35
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	20	10	2	8	38	32	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	24	8	8	8	33	29	32
9	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	FC Naples	22	8	2	12	27	35	26
12	Westchester SC	21	6	5	10	33	31	23
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
15	Greenville Triumph SC	21	5	5	11	23	35	20
16	Richmond Kickers	21	5	4	12	20	41	19
17	New York Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Richmond Kickers	Forward Madison FC
Portland Hearts of Pine	1-1 D	2-1 W
New York Cosmos	2-0 W	3-1 W
Charlotte Independence	1-3 L	1-1 D
Spokane Velocity FC	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Richmond Kickers

LLDLLLWWLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
17/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-3	1-5	1	4	L
06/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
02/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	3-2	6	8	W
26/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	9	0	L
19/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
16/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-4	1	3	L
04/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
25/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-1	1-5	2	8	L
21/06	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-2	4	6	L

Forward Madison FC

WWWWWWLDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
17/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
13/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	11	4	D
09/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
02/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
30/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	3-2	5-2	8	5	W
26/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	3	3	W
16/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	9	3	W
02/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
21/06	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	4	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Forward Madison FC win (48%). Probabilities: Richmond Kickers 27%, draw 25%, Forward Madison FC 48%.

How many goals are expected in Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison FC?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Richmond Kickers 1.33 · Forward Madison FC 1.8), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Richmond Kickers vs Forward Madison FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.