Football · USA USL League One · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Greenville Triumph SC vs FC Naples

Team pages: Greenville Triumph SC · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Greenville Triumph SC1.55

FC Naples1.25

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Greenville Triumph SC Draw FC Naples

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Greenville Triumph SC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Naples 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Greenville Triumph SC 1–1–2 FC Naples (4 last)

FC Naples1-0Greenville Triumph SC
FC Naples2-1Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC2-1FC Naples
Greenville Triumph SC1-1FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greenville Triumph SC 1458 · FC Naples 1471

	Greenville Triumph SC	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	43%	27%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Naples: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greenville Triumph SC	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.5 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.1	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.24 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +13’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:59 +1’	2.24	3.40	2.86

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Greenville Triumph SC 1–1–2 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	1-0 HT 1-0	Greenville Triumph SC
07/09/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-1 HT 2-0	Greenville Triumph SC
27/07/25 USA USL Cup	Greenville Triumph SC	2-1 HT 1-1	FC Naples
08/06/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	23	14	3	6	40	26	45
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
3	Forward Madison FC	21	12	4	5	41	22	40
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	20	11	2	7	29	26	35
6	AC Boise	22	10	5	7	33	31	35
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	20	10	2	8	38	32	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	24	8	8	8	33	29	32
9	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	FC Naples	22	8	2	12	27	35	26
12	Westchester SC	21	6	5	10	33	31	23
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
15	Greenville Triumph SC	21	5	5	11	23	35	20
16	Richmond Kickers	21	5	4	12	20	41	19
17	New York Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greenville Triumph SC	FC Naples
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Charlotte Independence	0-1 L	3-4 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	3-3 D	2-3 L
New York Cosmos	3-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Greenville Triumph SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
13/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
09/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
02/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-3	3-3	11	2	D
30/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
19/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
09/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	2	4	W

FC Naples

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	1	3	W
23/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	6	5	W
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
21/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	3-4	6	4	L
04/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-5	8	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greenville Triumph SC vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Greenville Triumph SC win (44%). Probabilities: Greenville Triumph SC 44%, draw 27%, FC Naples 30%.

How many goals are expected in Greenville Triumph SC vs FC Naples?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Greenville Triumph SC 1.55 · FC Naples 1.25), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Greenville Triumph SC vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.