Football · USA USL League One · 29/08, 01:00

Prediction: Charlotte Independence vs Antelope Valley Alta

Team pages: Charlotte Independence · Antelope Valley Alta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Charlotte Independence2.39

Antelope Valley Alta1.24

1X2

62% 21% 18%

Charlotte Independence Draw Antelope Valley Alta

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Charlotte Independence 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWWWWD

Antelope Valley Alta 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLWDLLWLL

Head-to-head

Charlotte Independence 1–1–1 Antelope Valley Alta (3 last)

Antelope Valley Alta1-1Charlotte Independence
Charlotte Independence3-2Antelope Valley Alta
Antelope Valley Alta2-1Charlotte Independence

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Charlotte Independence 1540 · Antelope Valley Alta 1451

	Charlotte Independence	Draw	Antelope Valley Alta
Our model	62%	20%	18%
Market	62%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1540 vs 1451).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Charlotte Independence	Antelope Valley Alta
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	2.1 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.48▼	Pinn 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.33▲	Pinn 4.48 ★
2	4.50 → 5.25▲	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:46 +6’	1.57	4.20	4.50
13:05 +5’	1.48▼	4.33▲	5.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:05 +2’	1.45	4.64	5.33
03:45 +2’	1.46▲	4.61▼	5.25▼
07:57	1.45▼	4.64▲	5.31▲
22:14 +17’	1.50▲	4.48▼	4.99▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Charlotte Independence 1–1–1 Antelope Valley Alta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/26 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	1-1 HT 0-1	Charlotte Independence
11/10/25 USA USL League One	Charlotte Independence	3-2 HT 2-1	Antelope Valley Alta
25/05/25 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	2-1 HT 1-1	Charlotte Independence

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	23	14	3	6	40	26	45
2	Charlotte Independence	21	13	4	4	47	29	43
3	Forward Madison FC	21	12	4	5	41	22	40
4	One Knoxville SC	22	11	6	5	37	25	39
5	Spokane Velocity FC	20	11	2	7	29	26	35
6	AC Boise	22	10	5	7	33	31	35
7	Chattanooga Red Wolves	20	10	2	8	38	32	32
8	Antelope Valley Alta	24	8	8	8	33	29	32
9	Corpus Christi FC	23	7	9	7	28	32	30
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	FC Naples	22	8	2	12	27	35	26
12	Westchester SC	21	6	5	10	33	31	23
13	Portland Hearts of Pine	22	5	8	9	32	37	23
14	Sarasota Paradise	22	6	4	12	23	36	22
15	Greenville Triumph SC	21	5	5	11	23	35	20
16	Richmond Kickers	21	5	4	12	20	41	19
17	New York Cosmos	21	5	3	13	24	43	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Charlotte Independence	Antelope Valley Alta
One Knoxville SC	3-1 W	3-2 W
Richmond Kickers	3-1 W	2-3 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	2-4 L	0-1 L
FC Naples	4-3 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Charlotte Independence

WWDLLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
16/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	3-0	3-1	4	7	W
09/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	9	9	W
02/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
26/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	6	0	W
23/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-0	2-4	5	3	L
06/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
01/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	2-1	2-1	8	5	W
14/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-1	4-3	6	4	W

Antelope Valley Alta

LDLWDLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
16/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
06/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
02/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
26/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	5	0	W
16/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
06/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
02/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Charlotte Independence vs Antelope Valley Alta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Charlotte Independence win (62%). Probabilities: Charlotte Independence 62%, draw 21%, Antelope Valley Alta 18%.

How many goals are expected in Charlotte Independence vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Charlotte Independence 2.39 · Antelope Valley Alta 1.24), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Charlotte Independence vs Antelope Valley Alta?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.