Football · USA USL League One · 20/08, 02:30

Prediction: Corpus Christi FC vs New York Cosmos

Team pages: Corpus Christi FC · New York Cosmos

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Corpus Christi FC1.7

New York Cosmos0.91

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Corpus Christi FC Draw New York Cosmos

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Corpus Christi FC 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDWDWW

New York Cosmos 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWDDLLLW

Head-to-head

Corpus Christi FC 0–1–0 New York Cosmos (1 last)

New York Cosmos0-0Corpus Christi FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Corpus Christi FC 1546 · New York Cosmos 1439

	Corpus Christi FC	Draw	New York Cosmos
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	56%	24%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Corpus Christi FC (rating 1546 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Corpus Christi FC	New York Cosmos
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	2.2 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.70 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:35 +8’	1.60	3.80	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:41 +1’	1.69	3.80	4.19
23:49 +1’	1.70▲	3.75▼	4.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Corpus Christi FC 0–1–0 New York Cosmos

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/07/26 USA USL League One	New York Cosmos	0-0 HT 0-0	Corpus Christi FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	21	14	2	5	39	23	44
2	Charlotte Independence	20	13	3	4	46	28	42
3	Forward Madison FC	20	12	3	5	40	21	39
4	One Knoxville SC	20	11	4	5	34	22	37
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	19	10	2	7	27	25	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	23	8	8	7	32	27	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	18	10	1	7	33	26	31
9	Corpus Christi FC	21	7	8	6	26	28	29
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	Westchester SC	20	6	4	10	31	29	22
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	20	5	6	9	30	35	21
13	FC Naples	20	6	2	12	23	34	20
14	Greenville Triumph SC	20	5	5	10	22	33	20
15	Sarasota Paradise	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
16	Richmond Kickers	20	5	3	12	19	40	18
17	New York Cosmos	19	4	2	13	19	40	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Corpus Christi FC	New York Cosmos
Portland Hearts of Pine	2-0 W	1-1 D
AC Boise	0-0 D	1-2 L
Greenville Triumph SC	1-0 W	0-3 L
One Knoxville SC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Antelope Valley Alta	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Corpus Christi FC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Corpus Christi FC

WDLWDDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	2	5	W
09/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-0	6	7	W
02/08	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
26/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	7	W
19/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
05/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
01/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	4	5	L
25/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
21/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	2-0	4-1	2	6	W

New York Cosmos

LLLWDDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
06/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
26/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	1	3	L
23/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	4	3	L
19/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
09/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
05/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	12	4	L
21/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	4	6	L
14/06	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Corpus Christi FC vs New York Cosmos?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Corpus Christi FC win (56%). Probabilities: Corpus Christi FC 56%, draw 25%, New York Cosmos 19%.

How many goals are expected in Corpus Christi FC vs New York Cosmos?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Corpus Christi FC 1.7 · New York Cosmos 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Corpus Christi FC vs New York Cosmos?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.