Football · USA USL League One · 20/08, 01:00

Prediction: One Knoxville SC vs Portland Hearts of Pine

Team pages: One Knoxville SC · Portland Hearts of Pine

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

One Knoxville SC2.13

Portland Hearts of Pine1.33

1X2

55% 23% 22%

One Knoxville SC Draw Portland Hearts of Pine

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

One Knoxville SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Portland Hearts of Pine 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

One Knoxville SC 2–2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine (4 last)

Portland Hearts of Pine0-0One Knoxville SC
One Knoxville SC3-1Portland Hearts of Pine
One Knoxville SC1-0Portland Hearts of Pine
Portland Hearts of Pine1-1One Knoxville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · One Knoxville SC 1533 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1427

	One Knoxville SC	Draw	Portland Hearts of Pine
Our model	55%	22%	23%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1533 vs 1427).
H2H favours One Knoxville SC: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	One Knoxville SC	Portland Hearts of Pine
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	10/30/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.8	3.3 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.75

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.66
X	3.75 → 3.75	Pinn 4.05 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
20:26 +11’	1.65	3.75	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:37	1.66	4.05	4.09

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · One Knoxville SC 2–2–0 Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	0-0 HT 0-0	One Knoxville SC
11/10/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	3-1 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
03/08/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-0 HT 1-0	Portland Hearts of Pine
05/05/25 USA USL League One	Portland Hearts of Pine	1-1 HT 1-1	One Knoxville SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	21	14	2	5	39	23	44
2	Charlotte Independence	20	13	3	4	46	28	42
3	Forward Madison FC	20	12	3	5	40	21	39
4	One Knoxville SC	20	11	4	5	34	22	37
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	19	10	2	7	27	25	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	23	8	8	7	32	27	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	18	10	1	7	33	26	31
9	Corpus Christi FC	21	7	8	6	26	28	29
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	Westchester SC	20	6	4	10	31	29	22
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	20	5	6	9	30	35	21
13	FC Naples	20	6	2	12	23	34	20
14	Greenville Triumph SC	20	5	5	10	22	33	20
15	Sarasota Paradise	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
16	Richmond Kickers	20	5	3	12	19	40	18
17	New York Cosmos	19	4	2	13	19	40	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	One Knoxville SC	Portland Hearts of Pine
Greenville Triumph SC	1-1 D	3-3 D
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 L	1-2 L
Corpus Christi FC	1-1 D	0-2 L
AC Boise	2-1 W	1-2 L
New York Cosmos	3-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

One Knoxville SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	8	0	L
16/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
12/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
03/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
21/06	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
14/06	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	5	4	W

Portland Hearts of Pine

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
09/08	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	6	7	L
02/08	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-1	3-3	3	2	D
23/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
18/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
12/07	New York Cosmos USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
04/07	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	3-2	7	1	W
25/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	1-1	5-1	3	5	W
20/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-2	1-5	4	3	L
14/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in One Knoxville SC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

According to our model, the most likely result is a One Knoxville SC win (55%). Probabilities: One Knoxville SC 55%, draw 23%, Portland Hearts of Pine 22%.

How many goals are expected in One Knoxville SC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model expects 3.46 goals (One Knoxville SC 2.13 · Portland Hearts of Pine 1.33), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in One Knoxville SC vs Portland Hearts of Pine?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.