Football · USA USL League One · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Team pages: Sarasota Paradise · Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Sarasota Paradise1.44

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.46

1X2

36% 27% 37%

Sarasota Paradise Draw Chattanooga Red Wolves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sarasota Paradise 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDDLLL

Chattanooga Red Wolves 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLLWWWLLW

Head-to-head

Sarasota Paradise 0–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves (1 last)

Chattanooga Red Wolves4-1Sarasota Paradise

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sarasota Paradise 1459 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1536

	Sarasota Paradise	Draw	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	36%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chattanooga Red Wolves (rating 1459 vs 1536).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sarasota Paradise	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 1	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.5 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.20▼	Pinn 2.28
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.54 ★
2	2.40 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.65

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 13% Pinnacle margin 9.8%

Time*	1	X	2
20:32 +9’	2.45	3.40	2.40
23:16 +33’	2.20▼	3.40	2.63▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:49	2.28	3.54	2.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sarasota Paradise 0–0–1 Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	4-1 HT 2-1	Sarasota Paradise

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	21	14	2	5	39	23	44
2	Charlotte Independence	20	13	3	4	46	28	42
3	Forward Madison FC	20	12	3	5	40	21	39
4	One Knoxville SC	20	11	4	5	34	22	37
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	19	10	2	7	27	25	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	23	8	8	7	32	27	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	18	10	1	7	33	26	31
9	Corpus Christi FC	21	7	8	6	26	28	29
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	Westchester SC	20	6	4	10	31	29	22
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	20	5	6	9	30	35	21
13	FC Naples	20	6	2	12	23	34	20
14	Greenville Triumph SC	20	5	5	10	22	33	20
15	Sarasota Paradise	20	5	3	12	19	33	18
16	Richmond Kickers	20	5	3	12	19	40	18
17	New York Cosmos	19	4	2	13	19	40	14

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sarasota Paradise	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Charlotte Independence	1-3 L	4-2 W
One Knoxville SC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Corpus Christi FC	1-4 L	1-2 L
Union Omaha	2-0 W	1-3 L
Antelope Valley Alta	1-3 L	1-0 W
FC Naples	2-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chattanooga Red Wolves (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sarasota Paradise

WWLWLDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-3	5	7	L
09/08	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	14	2	L
12/07	Miami FC USA USL Cup	0-3	0-5	4	3	L
09/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
21/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-2	1-4	5	6	L
14/06	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
11/06	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-2	1-3	6	3	L
07/06	FC Naples USA USL Cup	1-0	2-0	0	8	W
31/05	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	4	7	W

Chattanooga Red Wolves

WWLLWWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
09/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
30/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-3	2-5	5	5	L
26/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	4-2	5	3	W
16/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
05/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
02/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
21/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chattanooga Red Wolves win (37%). Probabilities: Sarasota Paradise 36%, draw 27%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Sarasota Paradise 1.44 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.46), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sarasota Paradise vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.