Football · USA USL League One · 23/08, 05:00

Prediction: Antelope Valley Alta vs FC Naples

Team pages: Antelope Valley Alta · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.92Total

Antelope Valley Alta1.66

FC Naples1.26

1X2

46% 26% 28%

Antelope Valley Alta Draw FC Naples

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Antelope Valley Alta 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLWDLLWL

FC Naples 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Head-to-head

Antelope Valley Alta 1–1–2 FC Naples (4 last)

FC Naples2-1Antelope Valley Alta
FC Naples4-0Antelope Valley Alta
Antelope Valley Alta1-1FC Naples
Antelope Valley Alta4-1FC Naples

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Antelope Valley Alta 1491 · FC Naples 1422

	Antelope Valley Alta	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Antelope Valley Alta (rating 1491 vs 1422).
H2H favours FC Naples: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Antelope Valley Alta	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.04 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:05 +9’	1.95	3.50	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:13 +1’	2.14	3.33	3.09
18:45 +34’	2.04▼	3.31▼	3.33▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Antelope Valley Alta 1–1–2 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-1 HT 1-0	Antelope Valley Alta
28/09/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	4-0 HT 2-0	Antelope Valley Alta
20/07/25 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Naples
29/06/25 USA USL League One	Antelope Valley Alta	4-1 HT 1-0	FC Naples

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	21	14	2	5	39	23	44
2	Charlotte Independence	20	13	3	4	46	28	42
3	Forward Madison FC	20	12	3	5	40	21	39
4	One Knoxville SC	21	11	5	5	35	23	38
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	19	10	2	7	27	25	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	23	8	8	7	32	27	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	19	10	1	8	35	29	31
9	Corpus Christi FC	22	7	8	7	26	30	29
10	Fort Wayne FC	20	7	6	7	26	24	27
11	Westchester SC	20	6	4	10	31	29	22
12	Portland Hearts of Pine	21	5	7	9	31	36	22
13	Sarasota Paradise	21	6	3	12	22	35	21
14	FC Naples	20	6	2	12	23	34	20
15	Greenville Triumph SC	20	5	5	10	22	33	20
16	Richmond Kickers	20	5	3	12	19	40	18
17	New York Cosmos	20	5	2	13	21	40	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Antelope Valley Alta	FC Naples
New York Cosmos	0-1 L	0-1 L
Westchester SC	0-0 D	2-3 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 L	0-1 L
Charlotte Independence	1-1 D	3-4 L
Union Omaha	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Antelope Valley Alta (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Antelope Valley Alta

DLDLWDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
09/08	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
06/08	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-1	1-2	9	8	L
02/08	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	0-1	2-3	5	8	L
26/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
19/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	1-1	3-2	5	0	W
16/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
06/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	7	4	D
02/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	0	3	L
25/06	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	5	D

FC Naples

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-3	2-3	5	4	L
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
21/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	3-4	6	4	L
04/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-5	8	5	L
31/05	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
24/05	Westchester SC USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Antelope Valley Alta vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Antelope Valley Alta win (46%). Probabilities: Antelope Valley Alta 46%, draw 26%, FC Naples 28%.

How many goals are expected in Antelope Valley Alta vs FC Naples?

The model expects 2.92 goals (Antelope Valley Alta 1.66 · FC Naples 1.26), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Antelope Valley Alta vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.