Football · USA USL League One · 23/08, 02:00
Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Charlotte Independence
Team pages: Forward Madison FC · Charlotte Independence
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.82Total
Forward Madison FC2.1
Charlotte Independence1.72
1X2
Forward Madison FC
Draw
Charlotte Independence
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Forward Madison FC
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Charlotte Independence
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Forward Madison FC
3–2–1
Charlotte Independence
(6 last)
- Charlotte Independence3-1Forward Madison FC
- Forward Madison FC1-1Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence1-1Forward Madison FC
- Forward Madison FC2-0Charlotte Independence
- Charlotte Independence2-4Forward Madison FC
- Forward Madison FC2-1Charlotte Independence
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1565 · Charlotte Independence 1542
| Forward Madison FC | Draw | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 25% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forward Madison FC | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.6 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 80/10/10% | 60/30/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 5.7 | 2.2 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 3–2–1 Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Forward Madison FC |
| 17/07/25 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 12/04/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Forward Madison FC |
| 03/11/24 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Charlotte Independence |
| 05/10/24 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Forward Madison FC |
| 12/09/24 USA USL Cup | Forward Madison FC | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Charlotte Independence |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 39 | 23 | 44 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 20 | 13 | 3 | 4 | 46 | 28 | 42 |
| 3 | Forward Madison FC | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 21 | 39 |
| 4 | One Knoxville SC | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 35 | 23 | 38 |
| 5 | AC Boise | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 31 | 29 | 34 |
| 6 | Spokane Velocity FC | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 27 | 25 | 32 |
| 7 | Antelope Valley Alta | 23 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 32 | 27 | 32 |
| 8 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 19 | 10 | 1 | 8 | 35 | 29 | 31 |
| 9 | Corpus Christi FC | 22 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 26 | 30 | 29 |
| 10 | Fort Wayne FC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 27 |
| 11 | Westchester SC | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 31 | 29 | 22 |
| 12 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 31 | 36 | 22 |
| 13 | Sarasota Paradise | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 35 | 21 |
| 14 | FC Naples | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 23 | 34 | 20 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 33 | 20 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 40 | 18 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 20 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 21 | 40 | 17 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Forward Madison FC | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Greenville Triumph SC | 1-1 D | 1-0 W |
| Chattanooga Red Wolves | 5-2 W | 2-4 L |
| Richmond Kickers | 4-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Spokane Velocity FC | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Forward Madison FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 13/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 02/08 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 30/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
3-2 | 5-2 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 4-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 12/07 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
2-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 13/08 | Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 09/08 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 9 | W |
| 02/08 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 23/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 19/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Charlotte Independence?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (46%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 46%, draw 24%, Charlotte Independence 31%.
How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Charlotte Independence?
The model expects 3.82 goals (Forward Madison FC 2.1 · Charlotte Independence 1.72), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Charlotte Independence?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.