Football · USA USL League One · 16/08, 01:00

Prediction: Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC

Team pages: Greenville Triumph SC · One Knoxville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Greenville Triumph SC1.26

One Knoxville SC1.35

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Greenville Triumph SC Draw One Knoxville SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Greenville Triumph SC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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One Knoxville SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWLLLW

Head-to-head

Greenville Triumph SC 1–1–4 One Knoxville SC (6 last)

One Knoxville SC2-0Greenville Triumph SC
One Knoxville SC1-0Greenville Triumph SC
Greenville Triumph SC0-1One Knoxville SC
Greenville Triumph SC1-3One Knoxville SC
Greenville Triumph SC2-1One Knoxville SC
Greenville Triumph SC0-0One Knoxville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Greenville Triumph SC 1457 · One Knoxville SC 1538

	Greenville Triumph SC	Draw	One Knoxville SC
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	35%	26%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours One Knoxville SC (rating 1457 vs 1538).
H2H favours One Knoxville SC: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Greenville Triumph SC	One Knoxville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.1	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.1	3.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.02

2 (0)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.49
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	2.30 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 9.9%

Time*	1	X	2
22:31 +2’	2.60	3.40	2.30
17:41 +8’	2.45▼	3.50▲	2.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +4’	2.59	3.19	2.55
03:06 +1’	2.54▼	3.36▲	2.50▼
09:04 +2’	2.44▼	3.41▲	2.41▼
17:29 +20’	2.49▲	3.44▲	2.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Greenville Triumph SC 1–1–4 One Knoxville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/05/26 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	2-0 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC
26/10/25 USA USL League One	One Knoxville SC	1-0 HT 0-0	Greenville Triumph SC
10/04/25 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	0-1 HT 0-1	One Knoxville SC
03/04/25 USA US Open Cup	Greenville Triumph SC	1-3 HT 0-2	One Knoxville SC
02/11/24 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	2-1 HT 1-0	One Knoxville SC
28/07/24 USA USL League One	Greenville Triumph SC	0-0 HT 0-0	One Knoxville SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	20	13	2	5	34	22	41
2	Charlotte Independence	19	12	3	4	43	27	39
3	Forward Madison FC	19	11	3	5	38	20	36
4	One Knoxville SC	19	11	3	5	33	21	36
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	22	8	8	6	32	26	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	17	9	1	7	31	25	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	20	6	8	6	23	26	26
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	19	5	6	8	29	33	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	19	5	4	10	21	32	19
15	Sarasota Paradise	19	5	3	11	18	30	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Greenville Triumph SC	One Knoxville SC
Charlotte Independence	0-1 L	1-3 L
AC Boise	3-2 W	2-1 W
Corpus Christi FC	0-1 L	1-1 D
Fort Wayne FC	0-3 L	2-1 W
Sarasota Paradise	0-0 D	2-1 W
New York Cosmos	3-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: One Knoxville SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Greenville Triumph SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
09/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	9	L
02/08	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-3	3-3	11	2	D
30/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	2-2	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-1	7	7	L
19/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-2	0-3	7	5	L
12/07	Richmond Kickers USA USL Cup	0-0	1-2	9	7	L
09/07	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
05/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
25/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL Cup	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

One Knoxville SC

DWWWDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	0	2	W
02/08	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	5	3	L
26/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
19/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-1	2-3	8	0	L
16/07	Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One	0-0	2-1	9	7	W
12/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	2	3	D
03/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
21/06	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	4-0	4	4	W
14/06	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
11/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL Cup	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an One Knoxville SC win (39%). Probabilities: Greenville Triumph SC 34%, draw 27%, One Knoxville SC 39%.

How many goals are expected in Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Greenville Triumph SC 1.26 · One Knoxville SC 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Greenville Triumph SC vs One Knoxville SC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.