Football · USA USL League One · 16/08, 01:00

Prediction: Westchester SC vs FC Naples

Team pages: Westchester SC · FC Naples

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Westchester SC1.61

FC Naples1.32

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Westchester SC Draw FC Naples

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Westchester SC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Naples 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Westchester SC 1–1–2 FC Naples (4 last)

FC Naples1-0Westchester SC
Westchester SC2-0FC Naples
FC Naples2-2Westchester SC
FC Naples2-1Westchester SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Westchester SC 1473 · FC Naples 1408

	Westchester SC	Draw	FC Naples
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Westchester SC (rating 1473 vs 1408).
H2H favours FC Naples: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Westchester SC	FC Naples
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.2	1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	1.8 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.50

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Pinn 2.13
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 3.06 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
22:14 +18’	2.05	3.50	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:29 +4’	2.13	3.38	3.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Westchester SC 1–1–2 FC Naples

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA USL League One	FC Naples	1-0 HT 1-0	Westchester SC
12/10/25 USA USL League One	Westchester SC	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Naples
31/08/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-2 HT 2-1	Westchester SC
13/07/25 USA USL League One	FC Naples	2-1 HT 1-1	Westchester SC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	20	13	2	5	34	22	41
2	Charlotte Independence	19	12	3	4	43	27	39
3	Forward Madison FC	19	11	3	5	38	20	36
4	One Knoxville SC	19	11	3	5	33	21	36
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	22	8	8	6	32	26	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	17	9	1	7	31	25	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	20	6	8	6	23	26	26
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	19	5	6	8	29	33	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	19	5	4	10	21	32	19
15	Sarasota Paradise	19	5	3	11	18	30	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Westchester SC	FC Naples
Forward Madison FC	0-2 L	1-3 L
Antelope Valley Alta	0-0 D	2-1 W
New York Cosmos	3-0 W	0-1 L
Union Omaha	2-2 D	1-2 L
Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-2 L	0-1 L
Portland Hearts of Pine	5-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Westchester SC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Westchester SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
26/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
23/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
19/07	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-1	2-2	3	5	D
12/07	Hartford Athletic USA USL Cup	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
06/07	AC Boise USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
02/07	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
25/06	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	3	1	L
20/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	2-0	5-1	2	3	W
15/06	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	3-0	4-0	1	4	W

FC Naples

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
26/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	7	3	L
12/07	Tampa Bay Rowdies USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	2	7	L
09/07	New York Cosmos USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
04/07	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-3	7	1	L
21/06	Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
14/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	1-1	3-4	6	4	L
07/06	Sarasota Paradise USA USL Cup	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
04/06	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-3	1-5	8	5	L
31/05	Union Omaha USA USL League One	1-0	1-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Westchester SC vs FC Naples?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Westchester SC win (43%). Probabilities: Westchester SC 43%, draw 26%, FC Naples 31%.

How many goals are expected in Westchester SC vs FC Naples?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Westchester SC 1.61 · FC Naples 1.32), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Westchester SC vs FC Naples?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.