Football · USA USL League One · 16/08, 01:30

Prediction: Fort Wayne FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves

Team pages: Fort Wayne FC · Chattanooga Red Wolves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Fort Wayne FC1.57

Chattanooga Red Wolves1.2

1X2

45% 26% 28%

Fort Wayne FC Draw Chattanooga Red Wolves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fort Wayne FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Chattanooga Red Wolves 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fort Wayne FC 1–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves (1 last)

Chattanooga Red Wolves0-1Fort Wayne FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fort Wayne FC 1484 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1512

	Fort Wayne FC	Draw	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Our model	45%	27%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fort Wayne FC	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	2.6 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.50

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 2.05 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.62
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
22:31 +8’	1.95	3.50	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:38 +1’	2.05	3.62	3.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fort Wayne FC 1–0–0 Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA USL League One	Chattanooga Red Wolves	0-1 HT 0-1	Fort Wayne FC

Standings · USA USL League One

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Union Omaha	20	13	2	5	34	22	41
2	Charlotte Independence	19	12	3	4	43	27	39
3	Forward Madison FC	19	11	3	5	38	20	36
4	One Knoxville SC	19	11	3	5	33	21	36
5	AC Boise	21	10	4	7	31	29	34
6	Spokane Velocity FC	18	10	2	6	25	22	32
7	Antelope Valley Alta	22	8	8	6	32	26	32
8	Chattanooga Red Wolves	17	9	1	7	31	25	28
9	Fort Wayne FC	19	7	6	6	25	22	27
10	Corpus Christi FC	20	6	8	6	23	26	26
11	Portland Hearts of Pine	19	5	6	8	29	33	21
12	FC Naples	19	6	2	11	21	31	20
13	Westchester SC	19	5	4	10	28	27	19
14	Greenville Triumph SC	19	5	4	10	21	32	19
15	Sarasota Paradise	19	5	3	11	18	30	18
16	Richmond Kickers	19	5	3	11	18	35	18
17	New York Cosmos	18	3	2	13	18	40	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fort Wayne FC	Chattanooga Red Wolves
Antelope Valley Alta	0-3 L	1-0 W
Union Omaha	0-2 L	1-3 L
One Knoxville SC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Forward Madison FC	1-1 D	2-5 L
Westchester SC	1-1 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chattanooga Red Wolves (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fort Wayne FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	0-1	0-3	13	5	L
02/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
26/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	1-0	1-3	10	6	L
19/07	Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	1	5	W
16/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-2	6	7	L
12/07	Detroit City FC USA USL Cup	0-0	1-2	2	3	L
05/07	Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
21/06	Richmond Kickers USA USL League One	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
18/06	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
11/06	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-1	1-1	6	5	D

Chattanooga Red Wolves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Union Omaha USA USL League One	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
30/07	Forward Madison FC USA USL League One	2-3	2-5	5	5	L
26/07	One Knoxville SC USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	6	4	W
19/07	Charlotte Independence USA USL League One	0-1	4-2	5	3	W
16/07	Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/07	San Antonio FC USA USL Cup	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
05/07	Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
02/07	Westchester SC USA USL League One	0-0	2-0	10	5	W
21/06	FC Naples USA USL League One	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
14/06	Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One	1-0	2-1	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fort Wayne FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fort Wayne FC win (45%). Probabilities: Fort Wayne FC 45%, draw 26%, Chattanooga Red Wolves 28%.

How many goals are expected in Fort Wayne FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Fort Wayne FC 1.57 · Chattanooga Red Wolves 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Fort Wayne FC vs Chattanooga Red Wolves?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.