Football · USA USL League One · 16/07, 02:00
Prediction: Forward Madison FC vs Richmond Kickers
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.11Total
Forward Madison FC2.07
Richmond Kickers1.04
1X2
Forward Madison FC
Draw
Richmond Kickers
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Forward Madison FC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Richmond Kickers
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Forward Madison FC
3–1–2
Richmond Kickers
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Forward Madison FC 1509 · Richmond Kickers 1429
| Forward Madison FC | Draw | Richmond Kickers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Market | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Forward Madison FC (rating 1509 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Forward Madison FC: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Forward Madison FC | Richmond Kickers | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.3 | 0.6 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.6 | 1.4 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 5.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Forward Madison FC 3–1–2 Richmond Kickers
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/25 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 5-1 HT 3-1 | Forward Madison FC |
| 14/09/25 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Richmond Kickers |
| 29/03/25 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Forward Madison FC |
| 04/07/24 USA USL League One | Richmond Kickers | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Forward Madison FC |
| 14/04/24 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Richmond Kickers |
| 15/09/23 USA USL League One | Forward Madison FC | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Richmond Kickers |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Union Omaha | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 25 | 18 | 31 |
| 2 | Charlotte Independence | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 18 | 30 |
| 3 | One Knoxville SC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 12 | 30 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | AC Boise | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 24 |
| 6 | Fort Wayne FC | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 20 | 12 | 24 |
| 7 | Forward Madison FC | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 23 |
| 8 | Spokane Velocity FC | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 23 |
| 9 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 20 |
| 10 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 19 |
| 11 | Sarasota Paradise | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 18 |
| 12 | Corpus Christi FC | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Naples | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 17 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 23 | 14 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 14 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | 12 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 14 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 10 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Forward Madison FC | Richmond Kickers |
|---|---|---|
| Fort Wayne FC | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| AC Boise | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Greenville Triumph SC | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Corpus Christi FC | 3-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Forward Madison FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Forward Madison FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Union Omaha USA USL Cup |
2-1 | 4-3 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 02/07 | Spokane Velocity FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/06 | New York Cosmos USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 18/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 14/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 5-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 07/06 | Indy Eleven USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 04/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 30/05 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Charlotte Independence USA USL League One |
1-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | Detroit City FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 8 | L |
Richmond Kickers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 25/06 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/06 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/06 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/06 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 07/06 | Loudoun United FC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 31/05 | AC Boise USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 28/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
0-2 | 0-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Forward Madison FC vs Richmond Kickers?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Forward Madison FC win (60%). Probabilities: Forward Madison FC 60%, draw 23%, Richmond Kickers 17%.
How many goals are expected in Forward Madison FC vs Richmond Kickers?
The model expects 3.11 goals (Forward Madison FC 2.07 · Richmond Kickers 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Forward Madison FC vs Richmond Kickers?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.