Football · USA USL League One · 23/07, 03:00
Prediction: Spokane Velocity FC vs Charlotte Independence
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.92Total
Spokane Velocity FC1.55
Charlotte Independence1.37
1X2
Spokane Velocity FC
Draw
Charlotte Independence
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Spokane Velocity FC
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Charlotte Independence
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Spokane Velocity FC
1–1–3
Charlotte Independence
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Spokane Velocity FC 1504 · Charlotte Independence 1552
| Spokane Velocity FC | Draw | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 41% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte Independence (rating 1504 vs 1552).
- H2H favours Charlotte Independence: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Spokane Velocity FC | Charlotte Independence | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 2.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 60/40/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.2 | 2.4 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0 | 4.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Spokane Velocity FC 1–1–3 Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Spokane Velocity FC |
| 04/10/25 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Spokane Velocity FC |
| 12/06/25 USA USL League One | Spokane Velocity FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Charlotte Independence |
| 28/07/24 USA USL League One | Spokane Velocity FC | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Charlotte Independence |
| 29/03/24 USA USL League One | Charlotte Independence | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Spokane Velocity FC |
Standings · USA USL League One
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | One Knoxville SC | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Union Omaha | 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 32 |
| 3 | Charlotte Independence | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 22 | 30 |
| 4 | Antelope Valley Alta | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 26 | 21 | 28 |
| 5 | AC Boise | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 24 | 27 |
| 6 | Fort Wayne FC | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 24 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Forward Madison FC | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 14 | 26 |
| 8 | Spokane Velocity FC | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 21 | 26 |
| 9 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 27 | 17 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 25 | 26 | 20 |
| 11 | Corpus Christi FC | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 20 | 26 | 19 |
| 12 | Sarasota Paradise | 18 | 5 | 3 | 10 | 17 | 28 | 18 |
| 13 | FC Naples | 17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 27 | 17 |
| 14 | Westchester SC | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 25 | 25 | 15 |
| 15 | Greenville Triumph SC | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 24 | 14 |
| 16 | Richmond Kickers | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 12 | 30 | 12 |
| 17 | New York Cosmos | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 17 | 33 | 11 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Spokane Velocity FC | Charlotte Independence |
|---|---|---|
| Forward Madison FC | 0-1 L | 3-1 W |
| Antelope Valley Alta | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Charlotte Independence (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Spokane Velocity FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Richmond Kickers USA USL League One |
2-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 11/07 | Oakland Roots USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 05/07 | Fort Wayne FC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 02/07 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
0-1 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 25/06 | Westchester SC USA USL League One |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 21/06 | One Knoxville SC USA USL League One |
0-2 | 0-4 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 14/06 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | AC Boise USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 31/05 | Portland Hearts of Pine USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 25/05 | Sarasota Paradise USA USL League One |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
Charlotte Independence
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Charleston Battery USA USL Cup |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Antelope Valley Alta USA USL League One |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 01/07 | Corpus Christi FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 25/06 | Greenville Triumph SC USA USL Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 14/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
1-1 | 4-3 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/06 | Union Omaha USA USL League One |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 04/06 | FC Naples USA USL League One |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 31/05 | Chattanooga Red Wolves USA USL League One |
2-2 | 3-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 24/05 | Forward Madison FC USA USL League One |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Spokane Velocity FC vs Charlotte Independence?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Spokane Velocity FC win (41%). Probabilities: Spokane Velocity FC 41%, draw 27%, Charlotte Independence 33%.
How many goals are expected in Spokane Velocity FC vs Charlotte Independence?
The model expects 2.92 goals (Spokane Velocity FC 1.55 · Charlotte Independence 1.37), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Spokane Velocity FC vs Charlotte Independence?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.